The Cabal

Very recently a couple of very good poker players in my garage who also happen to be good friends of mine, suffered setbacks.  One had a health emergency with his wife, she has since bounced back very well.  The other, sad to say, lost a close family member.

I know very little details of the circumstances, but my heart goes out to these guys - especially the one that now has to deal with the crushing grief process.  But these events really gave me some perspective and set my brain to working on the bigger picture when it comes to poker and the people I play with.  It hit me like a bolt - maybe I've been going at this WSOP thing all wrong.

There is a very, very, VERY short list of people, on my list of over 30 or so regulars and 100 or so once in a blue-mooners, whose poker game I have above and beyond respect for.   Of that short list, there's an even smaller portion of those names that I am considering taking 'talking poker' to the next level with.

Allow me to explain.  For a long time I have worked on my game.   There are 5 things I do to improve, they are -

1. Play
2. Talk poker with a few confidantes.
3. Read books.
4. Watch training videos.
5. Other misc. things - including, podcasts, poker on tv, poker magazine articles and once every few years a training seminar.

On this list, nothing, and I mean nothing, beats playing.  The more I play, the more experience I get, the better I get.  I know for sure that I am technically a better player than many of the regulars in the card rooms, but where they have an edge over me is in raw experience.  They are able to get away cheap in bad spots and/or get their money in while they are ahead more frequently and with more accuracy than me, simply because they have more time at the tables.  By a lot.

But this first item isn't the concern of this post - the second item is.

I love talking poker with 3 guys, 2 of which had the setbacks I mentioned.  But, the sad part is, I don't do it nearly often enough.   Talking through hands thoroughly and honestly does more for my game than reading, watching videos and every other item on the list combined except for seminars like the WSOP academy which are very expensive and very infrequent.

So I'm afraid I haven't taken nearly enough advantage of my 3 confidantes.  I would like to change that in a big way.

The idea hit me when I was texting with confidante number 1, he of the wife emergency.  What if we were all to get together in my garage some afternoon or evening, and just lay it all out on the table so to speak.  In other words, utterly detail my thinking about the game - absolutely spill my guts about the inner workings of my poker brain.

I know it would help them, but it would probably help me more, to verbally articulate exactly where I am coming from and my thought process.  I get a TON out of just talking through the basics of a hand with these fellows. I can only imagine how much I would gain if I did not only that, but also revealed the inner workings of my poker world view.

Sounds crazy?  Stupid?  Hear me out.

The ultimate goal here, the big picture, would be to elevate my game greatly and ultimately make a deep run (like final table money or better)  in a major tournament.  I truly don't give too much of a shit about results in my garage compared to dropping a grand or so in a bracelet event for a shot at 5 figures or more.

What would I be gaining and what I would be losing?  Losing - three or more guys, the best players in my game, at the table in my garage having my inner playbook to work off of.  Gaining - a ton of valuable feedback on said playbook so I can make it better and better and use it in bigger venues.  Not even a contest in my mind.

Furthermore, I know I will become a better player also precisely because some of my opponents now know all of my secrets.  I will have to get a lot more creative to defy their expectations when we do play together.

Along with the ultimate goal of going deep in a big event, would be a very worthwhile thing of also helping my buds improve and perhaps they would go deep for big bucks one day.  The only thing more awesome than me sitting under the bright lights of a WSOP final table would be seeing one of these guys there.  I would quite literally drop everything and fly out to see any one of these dudes if it happened.

So that's what I'd like to do.  So far 2 of the 3 are on board, I'll have to work on the third fellow after awhile, he's grieving at the moment.  He's actually the one who might not be on board with this, but I'd respect him if that were his choice.

When we all, or most of us, do get together, I'd like to for sure go around the table one at a time and each of us go down a list of things that we want to share.  I myself have 5 topics that I'd like to bring up.  I'm going to share them here, in summary without too much detail, but these are aspects of my game that I am pretty proud of for understanding and working with to pretty decent results over the last 2 years.  If you're a player in my garage and you've just stumbled across this, congrats, you'll be given great insight into how I see the game.  Now keep it to yourself!  (Smiley winky face).


1.  Bet Sizing

More than any other topic, this has influenced my game over the past several years.  When I am in a hand (or even when I'm not) the very first thing I look at with a player is the size of their bets.  It is absolutely at the top of my list of things to observe.  It has top priority, because to me it is the number one source of information in a game that sometimes seems absent of it.

Once I see the size of a bet and a showdown, then see a different size of bet and a different resulting showdown, I have learned a TON about a particular player.

In general, but certainly not always - the big tell that's given off is; Big Bet = Big Hand.  Little Bet = Little Hand.   This is SO common with recreational and/or home game players.  It really is amazing.

I don't know that I've ever seen this tidbit in a book or video.  The idea is mentioned in passing and in many different ways, but in my opinion it is never given the correct emphasis.  This is a BIG deal and is something that I'm always hyper conscious of.

There are tons of players who adjust their bet sizing based on the strength of their hand, and it is an absolute disaster for them against observant opponents.  This can be pre-flop or post.   The biggest pre-flop tell I see on a regular basis is the over sized bet of pocket Jacks.  If someone has been raising 2 to 3 times the big blind all tournament, and then suddenly opens a pot with a 6, 8 or even 10x raise - that's almost always Jacks.  Occasionally QQ or KK, once in a blue moon 1010.   If it's any of those, that's an INCREDIBLY SMALL range of hands.  This player is essentially playing their cards face up.  In a game of incomplete information, this is a beautiful thing.

Post flop, things can be almost as obvious.  All players are different of course, but more often than not, when someone has top pair meh kicker, or second pair on a dry board, they will bet a quarter of the pot or less.   Often they will lead out of position (donk bet) with a hand like this.  Many players bet this size with air as well on a flop that they miss as a continuation bet.   When they hit the board squarely and it's wet, they almost always will bet 3/4 of the pot or more.

If they flop a monster, they most often will check/call, or occasionally check raise big.  When they do the former it's the easiest thing in the world to get away from.  This of course does not apply to a capable opponent - someone who is utterly at ease bluffing big.  But these types of players are far and few between in home games.  I can basically count them on one hand among the players in my garage.

Those who check/call a monster flop will also likely do the same on the turn, and then absolutely bomb it with a pot sized bet or more on the river, especially if I check back the turn.  Again, this is the same as a giant neon sign reading "Monster Hand" illuminated over their heads.

Now don't misunderstand - there are no absolute rules here, it takes a lot of experience at the table to sift through the bet sizing indicators and tells; but many players don't even know this is what they should be looking at.  I look forward to sharing this topic with my cabal and see what they say.


2.  Betting Frequency/Patterns

This is a much more nebulous category of tells that nonetheless can be very valuable with certain opponents.  This pattern of behavior is more frequently pointed out in books, so there's less of a big revelation here.  But I've used my observation of bet sizing in tandem with betting frequency and/or patterns very effectively for a few years now, especially on less experienced opponents to great results.

As with bet sizing, I use how often and when someone bets to help me put an opponent on a range of hands (see topic 3 below) and as with sizing, in general, the more an opponent is doing something, the stronger his or her hand is.  This is not always the case with everyone (there is a class of softer opponents who will bet every street small with a weak or negligible holding)  but in general - firing a second barrel on the turn means they have hit the board.

Firing on all three streets for sure means they have connected (again, except for very capable opponents who know that I like to float).  Once more, I have a very short list of players in my garage that I know can triple barrel with nothing.  With 90% of my opponents in a home game, if they fire on all three streets, I know they have show down value.  I refer to their sizing to clue me in to the degree of strength of their hand.

Leading out, also known as donk betting, is a big indicator for most home gamers that they have connected at medium strength with the flop.  Either middle pair or top pair with an ok kicker.  This is especially true if the board is wet.  I often notice that the bet size increases in tandem with the wetness of the flop.  (Again, sizing gives the most info.)

Check raising is super strong with most opponents.  I know of very few who are capable of doing it as a bluff.  I myself am capable, but only against players who are in turn capable of folding to a show of strength.  This is mostly folks who have played for several years and take their game seriously but aren't the toughest of the bunch.

A river bet more than any other bet, generally means what it means.  Yes, there are a good amount of players who value bet the river if they think they are ahead - though they likely don't even know what that means, but there are hardly any capable of firing if they have zero equity.  The ones that do often (again with sizing) put out a bet that's a quarter of the pot or less.  Or they simply shove which often makes no sense and is easy to decipher.  An abrupt river shove is almost always a slow played monster, but sometimes it is an act of desperation that can be picked off. Only the bad asses will bomb the river with complete air and a logical bet size.


3. Opponent Hand Ranges

This topic has been covered extensively by books and videos - so I'm absolutely not breaking any new ground here.  But I think it's worth talking about with the Cabal because I don't see this concept being used often enough in home poker.  I want to bring this up because I want to make sure that these guys are all familiar with this concept and use it the same way I do.

Too often I hear - "Well I put you on Ace Queen" or some other such nonsense.  I hope I can share and articulate why this is a bad method of reading an opponent.

To try and put someone on a particular hand is not just unlikely, it's actually harmful.  We should never aspire to narrow an opponents range to a single combination of cards.  Doing this too often leads to the disastrous scenario of folding a winning hand in a monstrous pot.  If you are literally only beaten by one hand (for example you have KK pre-flop with 40 bigs or less in a tournament and your opponent shoves) then you are committing an equity catastrophe here by folding.

My opponent who is very tight regular three bet shoves from the small blind after my open from the cutoff with QQ.  He has 30 big blinds which will cripple me.  I actually see players in situations like this go into the tank and agonize.  They know the player is super tight, and they are desperately trying to put him on a single hand - AA.   This is stupid.

My thought process, which takes about two seconds is - "What hands (emphasis on the plural) does he have here?  AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AK or AQ. Also, because it's me and I'm perceived by him as a maniac his range includes 88 or better, as well as AJ, A10, KQ, KJ and any suited ace, plus there's a good chance that a few other lesser holdings are in there too.  Insta-call."

Notice I include AA & KK but I don't worry about it because it's just a tiny part of his range.  What's the point of agonizing over a very small portion of the hands he is doing this with?  Poker is all about calculated risks and we must be willing to make them every time when the odds are so heavily in our favor.  We can't control the 10% flukes, we just have to live with them.

The other, and perhaps more important thing about putting your opponent on a range instead of a particular hand, is that you must have this to bet sensibly - especially on the river.

 What hands does my opponent have and what can he call me with that I beat?   This is THE question for deciding when to value bet and for how much.

A typical thought process before value betting should be - "For a half pot bet here, I'm getting called with, TPTK, an overpair, two pair, and certainly a lower set."  My own thoughts are more condensed, more like "There's a lot he can call me with" or "There's not much he can call me with that I can beat, but I'm too strong not to bet" or "He only calls me with what beats me, I'm checking back" and so on.


4. Perceived Range

Just as important as my opponents range of hands, is my own range AS PERCEIVED BY MY OPPONENT.

This is absolutely crucial for executing a successful bluff.  If I can't imagine what my opponent is putting me on, it is very tough to pull off a credible bluff.

Granted, most recreational/home players don't deal with hand ranges - but they do subconsciously imagine what different hands I am representing.  If I am playing someone who I know is hyper-fearful of draws getting there - you bet your ass I'm going to fire when a fourth spade peels off on the river.  I may even check raise bluff if I'm deep enough.

Conversely, if my opponent is a level 1 thinker (someone who only thinks about what they themselves are holding) I don't have to worry about my perceived range too much.  If they are weak and I bet they will fold.  If they call, they have showdown value - and if have air I shut it down or if I am strong I value bet the shit out of them.  Easy game.


5. The Myth of Soul Reading

I have covered this topic before on this blog I believe, but it is something I for sure want to bring up to the cabal.

This last year in the Main Event of the World Series of Poker there was a hand where a supposed poker pro folded quads face up to a shove on the river, claiming that his opponent must've had a straight flush.  Check out the particulars here.

Now, his opponent did not show, and later said that he did have the straight flush.  Let's take a leap here and presume that he was telling the truth.  My conclusion is that this is still an absolutely terrible lay down, not even considering that he was getting 2 to 1 to call.

Why?  You may ask.  He got away and preserved his tournament life (again, presuming his opponent is telling the truth).  Well, here's the thing - the likelihood of his opponent having precisely Q10 of spades is so unlikely as to be not really worth considering.   And this is a concept that I really believe in - sometimes, even if you could somehow magically see that you were beat, you would still be absolutely wrong to fold.

This also applies in the converse, if somehow you knew that your opponent was bluffing and that your nine high was good, you would still be absolutely wrong to call.  Stu Unger actually did this once, and he was right.  It worked out, but he was wrong to do so. Bear with me.

Poker is now and forever more a game of incomplete information, rooted in the idea that you MUST take calculated risks to succeed.  In other words, you must be willing to die in order to live.  In better words, poker is not about winning pots - it is about making correct decisions.

You absolutely will NOT win tournaments folding quads.  (This guy certainly is not in the November 9 - spoiler alert!)  Furthermore, if you make the 2nd disastrous decision to fold your quads face up, you will forever have a target on your back and you will absolutely be the next person I run a big bluff on.

Maybe once in a blue moon you will have a board and opponent that line up perfectly that lead to laying down quads being a potentially reasonable decision.

A loose/passive player whose over bet on the river let's you know he's super strong and there's a board of 9,8,7,7 with the first three cards being spades, where your opponent could have 105, 106, or J10 of spades or even better an open ended straight flush board where your opponent only needs one card to make his straight flush.

But even with these unlikely scenarios, no one can fault you for going broke with freaking quads.

The hand in the Main Event is ridiculous, and so are you if you lay down quads.

Really, this whole topic is to get all of us (myself included) to stop wasting time and energy 'splainin' meaningless hands.   In a tournament, 30 bigs or less - QQ?  Get it in.  JJ?  Get it in.  Flopped bottom set?  Get it in.  Open ended straight and flush draw?  Get it in.  Take your lumps.  Take your medicine.  And don't talk about it later.  Let's talk about actual hands.

*******

So there it is.  Really, this is all about making my game better and bringing my buds along.  I would love to aim higher, shoot for the stars.  Why not?

I see poker 'crews', groups of friends, on the WSOP all the time, sometimes they are pros but sometimes not, who have a regular home game that routinely go deep in the main.  Steve Danneman, who finished second to Joe Hachem in the main in 2005, has a regular home game filled with guys who often go deep and I think there may even be a bracelet winner or two in there.

Why not us?

*******

EDIT: 9-24-16, more thoughts.

I forgot one of the absolute biggest things I'd like to bring up - aggression.

More specifically, the lack of it in home games, that is - in general, raising instead of limping.  Why should we not limp?  Because good things happen when we raise.  And there's not nearly enough raising in home poker.

Think about it.  Say you want to come into a pot pre-flop with QJ in middle position early in a tournament.  It's a bit dubious to begin with, but what happens when you call instead of raise?  Players on your left are very likely to call as well, starting a limpede that often results in 5, 6 or even 7 or more players seeing a flop.  Good times.

Now you are in the middle of this mess and you have less and less information with each successive limper.  The guy on the button could have almost anything and the two blinds are literally calling and checking respectively with the entire deck.

Now the flop hits with a queen and two rags, rainbow.  Perfect right?  It's checked to you and you naturally bet - and get two callers, maybe three callers or more.

Super.  The turn is a king.  Fantastic.  Well this went well.  What do you do?  Check?  Bet?  Where are you in this hand?  I'll tell you where you are - you are in the land of FUCKED.

If you continue with your story and get called, that's bad.  If you check/call, that's piss poor because you inevitably will be sandwiched between two or more players who either have made hands better than yours or big draws.

If you lead out and get raised, as Eddie Murphy famously said "Whatthefuckyougondonow?"

All of this, and I mean just about ALL of this could've been avoided by opening the pot with a raise.  Even early when everyone's deep.  Yes, you're still likely to get multiple callers but guess what?  With two or three callers to your left, you're not attached to this hand - believe it or not you can get away easier because by calling your raise, your opponents have given you information that they otherwise wouldn't by just calling.

They have something.  As opposed to having possibly everything.  And just by virtue of getting called after you raise, you are in a much better position mentally to let go of this hand if you have to, even if you hit the flop.

So it is folded to you in middle position and you raise it up.  Now you only get one or two callers.  Maybe one has position on you or maybe not.  Now you are much more clear on where you are at, you've thinned the herd somewhat and when you hit top pair you are so much more well equipped to deal with people playing back at you.   Say this time you get two callers, one in position and one out of position against you.

Now you hit the same flop, it is checked to you and you c-bet, the one guy on your left does call, but the other guy on your right let's it go.

Stop right here.  Even though you've got someone playing back at you, can you see how infinitely better this situation is for you?  You are now heads up with what is likely the best hand - or you are crushed, but either way, the decisions you face on the next two streets should be relatively straight forward.

Regardless of the turn, my plan would be to check/call and then reevaluate on the river.  Easy peezy rice and cheesy.  Minimal mental effort required.

Good things happen when we raise.  We raise for value or we raise to bluff, but with either reason we get good things sent our way.  We thin the herd, and we get a shit ton more information than we would just by limping.

This is the kind of thing I want to dig into with my compatriot poker players.


So yes there would be a 'cabal' a small group of guys whose games I respect greatly.  But maybe we could all take it a step further.

Every other week or so I put out an evite to a hundred or so players for a tournament or a cash game.  I usually get a fantastic response.  Single table events fill right up fast, and multi-table tournaments typically have 20 or more players.

What if, I was to put out an evite for a "Poker Lab" event? An afternoon or evening of open discussion about the game we love.   I would limit it to 10 seats and see what happens.  The evite info would read something like...

"You are cordially invited to take place in a unique forum and laboratory in tournament home poker.

We all want to get better and what better way than sharing information with people that you like?

No one is going to get rich playing in our little game, but there are lots of economic opportunities in the game at large.  Wouldn't it be great if one of us could make a deep run at the World Series of Poker?  How are we going to make this happen?  We could cross our fingers and hope that one of us gets lucky, as we have for the past 8 years or so - OR, we could get pro-active and really work on making ourselves better.

There are lots of resources out there for improving your game - books, videos, podcasts, expensive seminars, and on and on.  But the very best resource I believe, and the one that has helped me the most by far in improving my game - is talking over hands with my friends.

I consider everyone on this list not only a poker buddy, but a friend as well.  The benefits we will get from spilling our guts about poker to each other will far outweigh any downside from revealing secrets.  I have no qualms about being transparent with my friends, and I am not looking to get rich off of my home poker game.  There's a reason all my tournaments are only $40 or $60 max - the garage is my learning environment, and I think it's high time I shared this with all of you.

I want to get better at my game, I want to take down a five figure score or more or at least see one of you do the same - and I think it's achievable,  but we can't do it alone.

I don't fancy myself an instructor at all, but I find by talking through hands with people, I learn AND they learn.  Hopefully we will have a mixe of more experienced players and less experienced players in attendance, but both groups will benefit and learn together.

And just sos you know, this is not a unique idea or happening - there are several well known groups of tournament players who do this sort of thing once or even several times a year.  Steve Danneman, who finished second in the main event in 2005 does this annually with his home game, which at this point has more than one bracelet winner in it.

Please come prepared with thoughts on what you want to work on.  We will go around the table and discuss areas of our game that we think need improving, and give each other feedback.  Then we will play a 'tournament' hand lab, where we play, but reveal our folded cards at the end and discuss our decision making progress.  This should be extremely helpful for everyone.

Hope you will join us for this unique event - pizza will be provided and at the very least it should be a lot of fun!"


That's my idea - I'll be running it past some of my closest friends in the game first to see their reaction.  Who knows, maybe they'll be disgusted!  I just hope they can see the bigger picture, crushing Pepper Street is not the idea behind my game; getting better and learning together so that we can crush out in the wild is.

Stay tuned to see where this goes!

Score!

For some reason I didn't feel compelled to post my WSOP report on this blog - but you can click here and check it out if you like.

As for this particular post, I'm happy to report that I recently had my biggest cash in 3 years.  It took place at the lovely Hollywood Park Casino (soon to be demolished and moved next door to a brand new facility) on a Friday at noon.  It was a 10K guarantee that, according to the floor, never has a problem meeting this amount; lots of people playing hooky from work I guess!

I didn't tweet the tournament, and now I'm kind of wishing I had because it has been several weeks and I'm afraid the details will be a bit sparse.

I bought in for $60 and there was also a $60 add-on which I ended up not doing, which is not at all like me.  I had a substantial pile of chips at the break, and I thought to myself, self, if I end up cashing in this thing (which looks pretty likely) I would love to have a bigger profit.  Not really logical or mathematically sound, but there it is.

Stack at the break. 

I recall getting into a number of hands that I played well, including two reasonably large pots that I had to bluff at to win; but by and large my play pre-break was fairly ABC.  I had told myself that I wasn't going to get too tricky, because trying to get the typical HPC tournament regular off of a medium strength hand is almost always a bad idea.

The two biggest pots I dragged both involved me flopping a set in multi-way pots, and then getting all the chips in with two players calling!  Both times my hand faded a big draw and also was crushing a top pair from the other player who was all in.

So yes, I was hit by the deck, but also my opponents were very soft in their propensity to not believe me and call off with top pair or some such.  Thankfully, I have gotten pretty good at sizing my bets to get maximum value.  Not once in the entire tournament did I slow play a flopped big hand.  Simply putting my foot on the gas was more than enough to get paid by the skeptical players with weak holdings or sometimes no holdings at all.

After the first break there was still a long ways to go; and here's where I start remembering a few hands.  One in particular that allowed me to nearly triple up and become the table chip leader.

Blinds were probably around 300/600, and I had around 60 bigs when I looked down at QQ in the small blind.   Or rather, I should say, I looked down at QQ after the flop, because recently I have taken to limping all of my small blinds when I am at 30 or more big blinds.  In other words, if it is limped to me, I don't even look at my cards pre-flop.  (I do pretend to look if I'm at a table where anyone is paying attention.)

Yes, this may seem a bit wacky, but I really think that being in the SB is such a HUGE disadvantage that even with a premium pair there are still a million ways to lose and short of flopping a monster - a surprisingly few ways to win, even if the hand goes to showdown.

By limping every SB I am balancing my range, and even though the majority of HPC players are not that good, many will still be able to narrow my range of hands considerably if it is limped to me and then I put out a sizable raise.

Now if there has been a raise behind me, all bets are off so to speak, and I look at my cards and of course re-raise if they are strong enough to warrant it.  I have to be pretty deep to flat and also be sure that I'm not going to get 4-bet by players on my left.

Anyways, the hand; it was all hearts and low cards on the flop. There were 4 players total in the hand, including the button, the big blind and a guy in the middle.  I checked, the big blind led out and it was folded around to me.  I called, having a queen of hearts and I was also very aware that my hand was likely good.

A black jack peeled off on the turn.  The plan was to check call. My opponent bet large this time, almost the full pot.  I suspected that the turn had helped him, his sudden change in sizing from a bit less than half pot on the flop and now to almost a full pot bet just screamed strength.

For a moment I  thought about re-raising, which would commit me to the hand, but then I really thought about it.  Yes there was a good chance he had AJ with a heart, but something about this guy also really led me to believe that he had a super strong range here - like aces or kings or some such.  He had been playing very passively and had gotten paid off earlier when he flopped the world.  Again the pattern had been the same, he led out when he flopped top pair (I think he had A9 or similar) and then bet very big on the turn when he tripped up.

So I stuck with my original plan and called.  At this point I had maybe 40 bigs behind, it would suck if I had to let this one go having stuck a third of my stack in, but I already told myself that I wasn't folding if a heart peeled on the river.  If he had the K or A of hearts than good for him.

And yes, a heart did hit the river.  The king of hearts.  A fantastic card, but if my opponent had AJ (or AK or AA for that matter) with the ace of hearts I was going broke.  Weirdly it did make sense that all of these premium holdings were in his range. My plan was to check raise jam.

 I checked, and he thought, and fired a very small bet, maybe a third of the pot.  Well this sucked, because now a jam by me was a bit preposterous, more than the size of the pot.  But then I thought about it - if he had AK, AJ, AA, KK, KJ or even better, low cards with a heart or maybe 1010, 99, 88 with a heart, I could get paid.  Plus, he had already put not a small amount of money into the pot.  So I went with the check raise jam.

He snap called.  I gulped.  "I guess this is no good..." I sighed as I turned up my queen high flush.  "No, you're good" he said disgustedly, and then in beautiful HPC style that I know so well he held up his cards as if to look at them, then popped them with a flick of his finger, then showed them to his neighbor on his left and then shook his head and slowly mucked his cards face up.  JsJh.

He had turned a set, hence the big ass bet; and my read had been correct insofar as the turn had helped him a lot.  And yes, he was slow playing a premium, much as I had.  I dragged a big pot for more than a double up with all the pre-flop limpers and antes in the pot as well.

Yay.

I believe it was here that I became the table chip leader, and didn't relinquish that for the rest of the tournament.  I would love to say that from this point on I cranked up the aggression and expertly kept accumulating by applying pressure in a lot of hands.  But the truth is, that with several hours still ahead of us before the money, I didn't get involved unless I was in position and had at least some equity in my hand.  If I raised pre, got several callers (which was typical), I wouldn't necessarily c-bet if I whiffed the flop.  I had been here before, and had spewed off my chips unnecessarily more times than I would like to admit - this time my chips were pretty much on lock down.

Thankfully, this wasn't that difficult, as most of my opponents played way too tight and revealed the strength of their holdings with their bet sizes or post flop flatting.  Again and again and again I saw the pre-flop over-bet with QQ, JJ, etc.  Again and again and again, I was able to deduce when someone had connected hard with the flop and get away with minimal damage.

Also, though I didn't catch many premiums (I remember getting AA in the whole tournament once, alas no action), I did have enough medium pairs, tasty suited connectors and broadway cards in position to get into hands and take them down often enough that my stack hardly ever shrank, but rather grew as the time passed.  One pot in particular I had K10 on the button, called a middle position player's pre-flop raise, flopped 2 pair and he stacked off with TPTK.

Yes, I was in the zone.  But I also had to get lucky, and I did mainly because I can't recall losing any crucial 60/40s when I was the 60.  Every time I needed to have my hand hold up or face a big loss of chips, it did.  I have played enough tournaments to know that is pretty unusual.   I did lose a few here and there, and also got my money in bad a few times and lost, but never in a pot of any real consequence.   On one hand my AQ got unlucky and ran into a short stacked AK, but then I got super lucky and sucked out on him with 2 pair on the river.  He was not pleased.  But he had also hardly played any hands and I had maybe an 8 to 1 chip lead over him.  I was never folding AQ to him, ever, even knowing there was a good chance I was behind.

And so the money came and went, we were down to just over 2 tables.  When we finally colored up the 500s, I was the tournament chip leader.

Pretty dope yo.

At this point, the average stack was a bit under 20 big blinds.  I had almost 80.  I felt pretty darn good.  Once the bubble had burst, the shorties quickly dropped or doubled and tripled up to hang in there.

We had started at noon, the final table formed just before 6pm.  Two other big stacks could hurt me, but I still had them covered.  Several medium stacks wouldn't feel good if they doubled through me, but they were not that scary.  And then there were 3 or 4 micro stacks that were all asking for an ICM count.  We agreed to run the numbers - I would be getting over $2500 if we chopped.  First place money in a normal payout was $3200, but $2500 would be awesome because no one was super deep at this point, I had maybe 45 big blinds. So I enthusiastically voted yes, but two guys, who happened to be rather obnoxious, voted this down.  They both had medium stacks.

So we played on and I busted a nice fellow on my left who happened to be in a wheel chair and had obviously suffered some kind of stroke.   He demeanor changed from affable to pissed off when my Ah6h turned a flush against his AJ, and he basically tried to run me over as he spun on his wheels to get to the payout desk.  I of course was deferential to him because of his condition, but I also remembered that I should be kind no matter what he looked like - read this post to see what I mean.

(Incidentally, the man in the wheel chair in that post was Garrett Greer, a tournament pro with over 3 million dollars in earnings and a 2nd place finish in this year's millionaire maker at the WSOP.  He hadn't broken through back in 2011, so I had no idea who he was at the time.)

So then there were six, then five and then finally four.  We had run the numbers for an ICM chop again, twice, at this point.  And still, both of the negative guys had turned it down.  One was now short stacked and the other unfortunately had doubled up.   I was still the chip leader.   I almost said 'no' to running the numbers again, but then thought better.

I was to get $2640, so I of course agreed.  After some squabbling and wheeling and dealing, the short stack managed to convince me to give him $100, we finally agreed, shook hands and cashed out.  It was 730pm.

Never had the 25K pinkies before.  So tasty.

So there it was, my biggest cash since 2010 I believe.  Very, very happy to fall into some real money for only $60.   I played very well, certainly not perfect, but I think the reason I managed to avoid spewage was that I most of the time kept it simple.  If I had zero equity post-flop, I let it go.  Just as important, I didn't enter a pot at all if I had garbage.   Getting tricky gets me into more trouble, especially against experienced regulars (whether they're good or not.)   I think this big win is a great lesson to me that more often than not good decisions, good fundamentals and patience will win the day, especially against weaker opponents.

I would like to say I have been crushing my home game this year as well, like I did last year when I won 4 out of 12 tournaments - alas my results haven't been nearly as good, though I have cashed in the top 3 a couple of times.  I think the main reason for my not as good results in my garage is me trying to get too tricky.  I have to remember, my image at Pepper St. is that of a maniac.  There's no reason for me to get involved with zero equity, I need to be more patient and wait for strong hands and then get my chips in and get paid.

But even with me leveling myself in my silly tournaments, I have to say, I think my game is stronger than ever; evidenced by my two WSOP cashes and this score here.  I am pretty much seeing the Matrix on a regular basis - and am comfortable against most opponents.   Here's hoping for another big score or two in the second half of 2016!

Respite and Plan

So if my 'Run Good' app is correct, I haven't played poker since February 12, that's over five weeks!   This is absolutely a record since probably 2010 or so.  Guess the medication is working.  Or is it?

Lately I've been jonesing to play cards, and it looks like I won't be able to sit down to the felt until April 2!   Granted, I will be in Hawaii with the fam, so I can't complain too much; but still - that's an awfully long time without some pokerage.  All told it will be 7 weeks with no gambool to speak of.


Ah well, I suppose I will be fine.  In the meantime I can play online with play chips which is all but useless - although I do get an ego boost in that for every 5 sit-n-gos that I play I manage to win at the very minimum 3 of them.  I suppose it is a bit helpful when it comes to the shorthanded and heads-up portion; at that point you have players who are taking it seriously and will occasionally find a fold when facing pressure.  Playing heads up is not something I particularly enjoy, but I have become quite a bit better at it over the last couple of years.  It really is the purest form of poker, getting inside your opponents head is absolutely critical to have consistent success at it, and that's something that I am now pretty good at.

My other favorite past time in times of a no poker spate, is to plan in my mind my poker excursions for the year.  In 2016, perhaps to make up for this current poker drought, I am planning 3 Vegas excursions across the spring and summer.

First and foremost and coming up quick, I will be headed out to Sin City by plane and renting a car and staying at the Orleans on the weekend of April 9th.  Arriving Thursday night the 7th and heading home on Monday morning the 11th.

The main purpose of the trip ostensibly is to reunite with all of my old high school friends from Berkeley.  These days I am a pretty shitty friend, were it not for Facebook I likely wouldn't stay in touch with any of them, not because I'm a dick - but because if I'm not working I'm spending time with my kid or yes, occasionally playing poker.  I'm not very social and I never really have been - this trip will rectify that at least for a bit.

But I know you noticed I used the word 'ostensibly' and you also know as well as I do that I will for sure still be playing as much poker as I can over three days, lifelong friendships be damned.

In a perfect world, I would be sticking to only one major tournament a day, setting aside poker the rest of the time to catch up with my homies.  In reality, I am likely to not only play one major tournament a day, but several smaller ones as well when I bust out, early in the morning and late into the night as well.  Wow I am a dick.

The major tournaments I have my eye on are the 11am at Aria on Friday and Saturday - a $240 10K guarantee with 20k in starting chips and a good structure and great room - and the 5pm $150 at Bellagio.  The former location is always a great time, now even better with a bigger prize pool and more starting chips. the latter I'm sad to say I've never played at before.  I'm looking forward to finally popping my Bellagio cherry so to speak.

Then, instead of being a good friend, I'll likely blow them off when I bust out and go on gambling at Treasure Island, Harrah's, Mirage and Bally's at their various low buy in shitty structure turbos that nonetheless are a good time because of their soft players and generally friendly vibe.

I have offered to stake the non-poker enthusiasts in our group, hopefully they will take me up on my offer and then fold their way to some money for me.   There are six of us going, and a big part of me wishes there were ten so we could all play in a sit-n-go at the Mirage.  Now wouldn't that be something!

As I mentioned, I will be staying at the fabulous (and by fabulous I mean cheap) Orleans, where once again I will no doubt try to play and cash in a poker tournament there, and probably fail.  The room is for sure my nemesis - the players are very nitty and grumpy and having played there at least once a year for the past 5 years, I've managed to not cash once.  Hopefully I can break that streak.

I do expect to cash at least once on the trip entire, but alas the days of poker paying for the trip in Vegas (like I did in 2010) are gone, it's very hard to pull a substantial profit playing cards in 3 days; especially in the low buy in high rake shove-fests of the smaller rooms.   Ah well, I won't let my wins or losses dictate my mood - I know I will have a blast regardless.

Speaking of a blast - my next trip to Lost Wages will be over a month later, the first weekend in June, for the Colossus II at the World Series of Poker.  I played in Colossus I last year and it was awesome, this year I plan to hit it harder and more seriously.

There are six entry flights and I will be planning on firing three bullets at $565 each.  Thursday, Friday and Saturday at 10am.   If and when I bust,  I will head back to the Orleans for the 7pm evening tournaments.  All poker rooms in Vegas are an absolute nightmare during Colossus, so I will not make the mistake of going to the strip again.  Last year I tried to get into the Aria 1pm and was alternate #51.  Good times.


If I still have any enthusiasm left for tournament poker after that madness, I will return to Vega$, first to stay at the Orleans Friday and Saturday night starting on the 17th of June and then moving to the Rio for Sunday June 20 through Thursday June 23.  My wife and kid will be gone from the house, so rather than wallow in loneliness I will for the first time attempt the life of a grinder, playing poker every day for a week!   Gee, I guess this medication really is wearing off!

I am very excited to give this a try; playing nothing but Rio Daily Deepstacks for seven days straight should be something else.  I plan to play in the 2pm $235 every day.  If I bust before five I will enter the 5pm $185, and if I bust after five but before seven I will enter the 7pm $135.  Believe it or not, these days I have the disposable income to make this semi-dream a reality, and in actuality it is likely to only cost about as much as a single $1500 bracelet event, and that is only if I don't cash at all, which I expect I will at some point.

I am super super pumped about all this poker in my future, and I am going to be mindful to have some serious fun and not focus too much on results.  I always play my best when I do this anyways, so why not be positive right?

Between now and then, I will endeavor to play a poker tournament at least once a week, so I won't be too rusty when I hit the ground running across the state line.

Can't wait!!!!

Transitioning...

So you might have noticed the post below, where I go on and on about my waning interest in hosting elaborate poker tournaments in my garage, and my growing hunger for a more meaningful goal in the game of poker.

Well, that all has changed, yet again.

I have another blog, manzoniman.blogspot.com, that deals with personal stuff and also includes my views on politics. It's a much better outlet than Facebook for getting my opinions off my chest.  But right now the most recent post deals with my personal vices, and first and foremost on that list is poker.  I still very much love the game, but if you read the post, you'll see that I've finally recognized the unhealthy side of the game that has encroached into my life - thanks in no small part to a medication that I'm taking to deal with my weight issues.

The medication, it turns out is part anti-depressant and part anti-addiction medicine; and as I say on my personal blog, it has changed my perspective on poker, among other issues that I'm dealing with.

The good news is, I am now aware that sneaking off to play poker in southern California card rooms at every chance I'm given, is not a healthy choice.  And I'm able to finally be honest with myself, that my priorities for the last five years or so, despite my rationalizations, have not been in the correct order.

Now, with this medication and this new perspective, it has kind of dawned on me that I need to lower poker on the list and make sure it stays firmly below family and work.  I've always proclaimed righteously on this blog that this is so, but if I'm being totally honest now - there have been times when I have lied to myself and to you dear reader.

But as my white hot lust for this game has now finally cooled, I can truly and joyfully say - I have very little interest in playing poker as often as I can.  I still have a love for the game, but it is now subdued deep in my brain and heart; my daughter, my wife and my livelihood (editing, directing) are now front and center as they should be, and this is a great thing.


******


But, as this is a poker blog, I would still like to very much on occasion, relay here what is going on with me and the game that I still love, though maybe I love it a bit less.

I had my physical on November 9, two days after a multi-table tournament in my garage.  I started taking my weight loss medicine a few days later - and miraculously, I haven't played poker since until this last weekend.  I know that's only just 4 weeks, but trust me, it's pretty much a miracle that I didn't find time in my garage or at another home game or at the Bike or Commerce in that stretch - I have played poker every other week at a minimum for the past 5 years, and this is my longest stretch without poker in a long, long time.

I feel good about this, and the only reason I played poker this last weekend is because I had scheduled this tournament months and months ago.  It was my annual Tournament of Champions free roll in my garage.   This year, if you follow pepperstreetpoker.com, you can see that I won three tournaments, so I had locked up my seat for the event plus another 10K in bonus chips.

Even better, there were only a few other players in the event who were going to make it tough on me.  My oldest and bestest poker playing buddy Sven, and another regular from our game who is kind of a character and fairly outspoken at the table; we'll call him Jim.  And finally, Janice, a good poker player who has been a regular at my game for years, who has a natural poker playing ability that would be basically unstoppable if she would ever emerge from her perpetual haze of marijuana.

Other than that, the remaining 6 players were all less experienced than I, and I felt pretty comfortable about going up against them.   All friendly, great people that I am fond of - but as poker opponents, I was feeling great about doing battle.

I have long been a believer that the longer one goes without playing the game, the rustier he/she becomes.   It is kind of like a bicycle, in that you don't actually forget how to do it, but it is also more like doing crossword puzzles, in that if you take a long hiatus, you don't slip back into a rhythm as quickly when you return.

Thankfully, as this was a large tournament for my garage (with $500 up top for 1st place) I found that I was very comfortable as the cards and chips started to fly.

One of the players, was unable to make it, so we started out 9 handed.  The good news, the missing player was a fairly experienced fellow who though rock-ish, is capable of bluffing in the right spots and has had very good results in my garage.

For the first two hours, I played extremely tight, so much so that Jim couldn't help but remark that I wasn't my usual aggro self.   But I knew two things that would keep me tight early on.  One, that the structure was incredibly deep, with half hour levels - making risking my equity much less necessary.  The average stack after 2 hours was still upwards of 80 big blinds.

Second, I had started the game with a 10K chip advantage - so there was really no point in trying to chip up early, as I had in effect already done so without playing a hand.

After 3 hours or so, after we'd had a couple of bust outs, I finally began to shift gears and get more involved.   Specifically, I targeted the two players on my right, both of whom were very very inexperienced and both of whom had lucked into a lot of chips.

Because they were so green, I knew that neither of them were capable of bluffing beyond a weak lead out or small continuation bet - which made it very easy to get away if they showed strength.  I also knew that they both hated to fold to aggression, especially from someone like me who has a pretty maniacal image in the game.  This would make both of them very profitable in value bet situations.

The player on my immediate right, Billy, if I had to guess I would say that he has literally probably played less than 20 poker tournaments in his life.  He is the sweetest dude, but he has a propensity to ship his entire stack out of the blue if he feels he has the best hand, with very little regard to what his opponent might have.  In other words, he often will put 50 big blinds or more at risk with moves where only a weaker hand will always fold and only a stronger hand will call.  A very unprofitable proposition.

And that was how he had gotten a mountain of chips early on.  Against Janice he ripped all of his stack, nearly 100 big blinds, into the middle when the turn came a third heart and he held the nut flush.  Janice tanked for quite awhile before making an absolutely horrific call with a set of jacks.  She said out loud, "I don't think I'm capable of folding this" before she did.  Janice, I feel you on that, I've often said the same thing out loud when I have a biggish hand, but in this instance - I really think that a less 'medicated' Janice could have found a fold.

This is especially true when I think back to another hand that she had with Billy in the tournament in the summer that she ended up winning.  Billy turned a King high flush on the turn, and indeed shoved his entire stack, which was well over 100 big blinds and Janice had to double check her cards before calling with the ace high flush.

What did this tell us?  That when Billy out of the blue puts his entire stack at risk, a big stack early on, he has either the nuts or very close to it.  What could Janice's middle set beat in this instance?  Not a flush, not a straight, not top set.  Only 2 pair and top pair - which Billy would never jam with.

At any rate, Janice was crippled and shortly thereafter out - Billy now had effectively doubled up.  As the third hour passed, I made it my mission to flat every one of his opening raises.   Then he would either check or meekly c-bet the flop.  If he checked I would simply bet, especially if there was an ace or a king and he would often fold.  If he c-bet meekly I would flat and fire the turn if he checked.  Sometimes he would bet tiny on the turn, and I would either flat planning to take it away on the river or simply raise him right then and there, which often worked.

I was however, cautious about getting to out of line with him.  Like many inexperienced players, Billy has a tendency to be a disbeliever and feel like everyone is trying to bluff him.  I used this propensity to great advantage a couple of times by absolutely value betting the shit out of him when the flop did hit my hand.

Once in a blue moon he would hit the flop hard, and when he did it was the easiest thing in the world to get away from, because all of the sudden his bet sizing would inflate to almost pot sized or even sometimes bigger than the pot.  It was like he was literally playing with his cards face up.

This oversized bet tell also applied pre-flop, he would go from a 3x opening all the sudden to a 6x or larger - this meant he had a premium hand, either AK or QQ, JJ, 1010.  And when he limped pre-flop, more than once this past year, this was a giant red flag that he might have aces.

At any rate - I believe Billy busted out in 5th, and then it was bubble time.  The bulk of his stack unfortunately went over to Sharon on his right, the other less experienced player at the table.  Sharon does have more experience than Billy, but her game still suffers from a lot of the same bet sizing tells and the same emotionally driven propensity to think that everyone is bluffing her.

Sharon, unlike Billy, will actually check if she blanks completely on the flop - or occasionally she will fire a small c-bet when she whiffs if she thinks she still probably has the best hand, like AK or some such.

Her pre-flop betting size tells are monstrous though, way bigger than Billy's.  She will literally bet 10x with queens or jacks. She also increases her bet size with AK, which is not that common with other newer players.

We got tangled up in a big pot as the bubble approached, I knew very clearly in my mind where she was at when she led out at an A 9 x flop, and then followed up with another bet of the same exact size when another ace rolled off on the turn.

I called this bet and then started to murmer out loud after a blank river hit and she checked to me, "I know you don't have an ace, what do you have?  Do you have a nine?"  The normally talkative Sharon was mum.  I replayed the hand in my head.  I had led out from under the gun,  4 handed I think we were with Jd10d.  She had defended her blind.  She then led out on the A9x flop.

She leads out a lot, and I commented on this.  "You're leading out again?" What does that mean I wondered - well my guess was that it meant she had hit the flop, either top or middle pair.

That she bet smallish on the ace on the turn, pretty much told me that it was very unlikely that she had an ace.  She would have either checked or bet big there if the board had been wet.  So then she had to have a 9 or a medium pair.  I went with this and counted up my chips, all the while mumbling that 'your 9 is no good' and then shoved my whole stack, which at this point was about 2/3 of the bloated pot.

She tanked briefly, but I knew she couldn't call if my read was right.  It would be a giant hit to her fairly large stack - she had enough chips behind to get away, and mercifully she did.

In hindsight, I'm glad my bluff worked out, but I think I made a mistake overall in mixing it up with her with very little equity in my starting cards after the flop.  Sharon, and Billy, and others who are just starting out - have very little incentive to fold when they haven't played enough hands to learn that it's correct sometimes to get away from a hand that has hit the flop.

To be fair to Sharon, she probably has at least 2 or 3 times the experience Billy has, which is really the only reason my bluff worked.

As I dragged the pot, I made sure to show her and everyone else, that I had bluffed.  Jim was aghast, and Sharon furrowed her brow looking for my strong hand that didn't exist.   I had now planted it firmly in everyone's mind, the old Chris was now here and I could literally have any two cards in the hole.

Jim ended up bubbling.   At one point it had looked like he was a sure thing to cash or even possibly win the whole thing with a big stack but he donated a lot of his chips to Sharon in a badly misplayed hand that he himself continued to lament out loud a good hour after it had occurred.   I don't remember the specifics, but again, Sharon's bet sizing had given him all the information that he needed - that she was very strong, and he pretty much ignored it because he had flopped 2 pair or something similar.

So we were 3 handed, and the third player, James, a solid player but a bit on the tight side - had managed to squeak into the money with his short stack that eventually succumbed to Sharon's mountain.

As heads up started Sharon had a 3 to 1 chip advantage over me, but I still had almost 50 big blinds.  There was a lot of poker left to play, and I knew this and didn't panic.

I min-raised every button for awhile, she almost never folded but frequently folded to my c-bets.  In this way I was able to grind up in about a half hour to where our stacks were almost even.

Then a bunch of folks arrived for the 7pm cash game I had scheduled.  Shortly after they got going at another table, I managed to lose a big chunk of my stack with a stupid bluff.

I was on the button and raised it up, Sharon came along and then led out with a biggish bet on a J56 flop. My mistake was right here, I called instead of letting go, because I had total air, and her mid to large size bet told me everything I needed to know.  She had hit the flop, most likely she had a jack or maybe even 2 pair.

A second jack hit the turn, and she fired again, only the bet was again the exact same size as her lead out on the previous street.  At this point I deduced correctly that she didn't have a jack, so I prepared myself mentally to bomb the river if she were to check, which she did.

It was a big bet on my part into an already big pot.  She quickly cut out the chips and threw them in.

Sigh.  I turned up my ace high.  She flipped up 65.

I was a bit aghast and couldn't help but show it, I wasn't sure at that moment how she had found a call with a naked pair of sixes.   But as I sat and collected myself and she dragged the chips, I thought about it.   In her mind, she flopped 2 pair, a big hand and she bet the flop big.  She's experienced enough to know that the jack was a dreadful card for her on the turn, but she also knows it's very likely that she's still ahead which is why she bet - though the sizing gave away her disappointment.

It took a lot of chutzpah on my part to try and bluff her again, after the earlier bluff which I had shown her - I honestly don't know what I was thinking.  Even if I had jammed, she was very likely to still call off with 3rd high pair.   It was for sure a mistake on my part to bluff the river, and now we were basically back to where we had started when heads up play began.

Thankfully, with half hour levels, I still had barely enough bigs to still raise pre-flop and have some room to manuever (though not a lot) post-flop.

Little by little I grinded back, only this time I stopped trying to continue with air unless she showed extreme disinterest.  She gave me a lot of walks, for sure too many, as well - and this helped me chip up.

Then there were two or three hands close together that basically sealed the deal, culminating in one of the best bets I've ever made in a tournament.

The first hand, I hit my ace on the flop, and bet fairly big on the flop and the turn before finally checking the river, she couldn't beat my top pair and I dragged the chips.

The second hand was similar, this time she had led out, but I had flopped top pair.  I bet the turn when she checked and again we both showed down.  More chips for me.

Finally, I had it figured out. I raised pre-flop with QJ, she came along.  She checked the flop which was KxJ, I c-bet my usual half pot and she called of course.  She checked the turn which was a blank.  I fired nice and chunky, she called without hesitation.  There was 4 to a flush out there now.  The river was another king that I believe completed the flush.  She checked with very little enthusiasm.

In the past, I would simply just turn up my cards and be happy with the big pot that was already out there.  This time, I cut out a monster set of 5K chips, nearly 3/4 of the pot, and slid them out.  I knew I was good, and I knew if she had anything at all, bottom pair, 3rd pair, a middling pair in the hole, she was going to pay me off - because I'm the bluffingist bluffer who ever lived in her mind.

She didn't take long to count out a big portion of her stack and splash them in.  I fast rolled my 2nd pair and she clucked her tongue.   "Didn't think you had it." she sighed and quickly mucked in disgust.

This was where my mistake in bluffing with air less than 45 minutes earlier, really paid off huge.  I know I was going to get big value from her from my image, but also from her lack of experience and the disease that most new recreational players have - the same disease that a legendary donator in our game, Emily, had for her entire tenure with us -  "I don't believe you.  I have to see."

Cha-ching.

It was a crippling blow to Sharon's stack, and now she was well under 20 bigs.  I whittled away at her some more, she had regressed to binary mode on the flop and then to binary mode pre-flop.  I had changed from raising every button to simply calling and seeing a flop.  If she had big cards, she was likely to shove pre, which she did indeed and I could release for less.  If she hit the flop, she would also let it rip, so it was equally easy for me to get away with minimum damage.

Finally, I looked down at AQ on the button and flat called once again.  She stuck her chips in and I snapped.  She had a very live J8 suited, and was 100% correct to jam, but I flopped trips and then filled up on the turn - it was over and I had taken down the TOC, the bracelet, my name on the wall and $500 in cheddar.

It felt great, it felt wonderful.  The cash game players applauded for me, in a very sweet way so as to not hurt Sharon's feelings too much.  It was a great, great afternoon and early evening.

Sharon pocketed $300 and I think was happy enough with her showing.  She should indeed be proud, she beat out a lot of other players this year in the garage.  I have no doubt that if she applies herself and studies the game and talks with players that she respects, she has more than a good chance to go far.

So there it is - though medicated and now cognizant that poker can't be the most important thing in my life, I've still found enough enthusiasm in my heart to pound all of this out.  On the other hand, I will likely not play again until the second Saturday in January, over 30 days from now.  Before the medicine known as Contrave, that would not have been possible.

I am grateful that I have my compulsion under control - and I have no doubt that this will in turn make the game a lot more enjoyable; as I can play with a clear conscience that I am doing right by my family, and also play with a more casual and less dire approach.  It no longer matters really at all my results, I guess I'll still keep track of them, but really I don't need to.  Playing once a month, or even less will be just fine with me.  And this is a very good thing.

Cold Hard Math

I love math - now that I'm an adult and don't have to do homework based on it.

I love it because it is cold and indifferent, devoid of emotion or sentiment.  I love it because it simply tells the truth, regardless of outside influences.

I love using it my poker game when I can, it helps me make decisions.  When someone is going to give me 3 to 1 odds to chase a 4 to 1 flush, it's a fairly easy fold as long as I don't think too hard about implied odds.   Math is my friend.

I recently learned to love math even more; I purchased a poker tracking app on my phone called "Run Good" for 17.99 and I have to say it was worth every penny.  The numbers that have spewed out of this thing have made me very happy.  Much happier than I thought I would be.

As you may know, I've been meticulously tracking my results since January of 2012; both tournaments and cash games.   In 2012 I was down a bit, 2013, up a bit, 2014 up quite a bit and now 2/3 of the way through 2015, again up quite a bit.

I had a vague idea of the grand totals, but now that I've loaded all of my results into this app, the big picture has become crystal clear.


Since Jan. 2, 2012 I have played in 212 tournaments.

I have spent $18,498 on entry fees.

I have won $25, 211.

I have made $6,713 in profit.   This is a 36% return on my investment.


Honestly, because I kept the spread sheet for each year separate, I had no idea that I was up this much.  Granted, 212 is not a huge sample size for four years, but I'm a strictly recreational player who leads a pretty balanced life, meaning I typically only play a two or three of times a month.  Plus of course an occasional Vegas bender thrown in, where I can easily play 20 tournaments in four days. But overall, I'm not anywhere near close to playing a lot.

I average just under 4 hours per tournament, which is 848 hours total - meaning my hourly profit rate for poker tournaments is a whopping $7.90 an hour.

So yes, I don't plan to quit my day job.

But still - I am so happy that I am a solidly profitable tournament poker player.


Here's a bunch of other cold math that I like, even when it's not good news.  All of these stats I gleaned from "Run Good Poker Tracker."

I have won 25 tournaments - which is 12%.
(I only include 1st place finishes on chops if I have the chip lead.  There are quite a few other '1st place' finishes where we just divided up the money evenly even though I was a slight dog in chips.)

I have made 55 final tables, which is 26%.
Obviously I don't include single table tournaments.  Yes, I do include my monthly multi table tournaments which often have only 2 tables BUT ONLY WHEN I MAKE THE TOP THREE.  I figure this is balanced a bit by the deep runs I have made in larger events, such as when I final tabled the 40 table Bally's Classic twice in two days in 2013 or when I final tabled the Hollywood Park Sport of Kings 20K guaranteed event in 2012 which had 60 tables.

I have cashed 85 times, which is 40%.
This is a pretty darn big number which is both great and not so great.  A high percentage here with a mediocre hourly means I'm min-cashing way too much.

I average $87 per buy in.

My longest tournament winning streak is four cashes.
This is a bit surprising, for some reason I thought it would be more.

My best accumulative streak is $1660.
Don't know if that was from the 4 tournament winning streak.

My worst tournament losing streak is 11 non-cashes.
Again, I thought this number would be larger, glad it isn't.

My worst accumulative loss is $1165.
Glad it's not bigger than my best accumulative winning streak.

The most number of tournaments I have played at one location are in my garage - 51.

Followed by...
Hollywood Park - 32
Commerce - 31
The Bike - 22

and then believe it or not...

The Rio - 8  (which has always been for the WSOP, including the Daily Deep Stacks)
Mirage - 8
Harrah's - 8
Aria - 7
Treasure Island - 6  (weird, I thought I played here WAY more, read on to see why)
GK Binion's - 5 (Garner's home game)
Bally's - 5


My most profitable day of the week by far is Monday - $3,051 of my total profit.
That day is indeed memorable, 3 of my big 4 figure scores came on that day, two of them were on day two in larger events.

The location with the best return on my investment is Treasure Island with an ROI of %368
Makes sense, it's a $50 tournament and I've cashed there 4 out of 6 times for $300-$900 each time.

Most of my tournament 1st place finishes, happened in my garage on Saturday - 8 of them.

Followed by 7 first place finishes in other home games.

Followed by 4 fist place finishes back in my garage during the week (single table SNGs)

Followed by 6 genuine first place finishes in card rooms - 2 of them at HPC, 1 at the Bike and 1 at Commerce, plus 2 more at HPC in their long gone single table SNGs.  Alas, no first place finishes in major events.

My two highest locations for winning percentage were both home games, both now defunct - Eric's game and the Monkeyland Audio game.  I won in both of these 66.67% of the time.   I was always an alternate at Eric's game and I was likely taken off the list at Monkeyland when I crushed souls so frequently.



As I said, good news mostly.

I am now very much inspired to know, via cold hard math, that I am indeed beating this game.  Not crushing it by any means, despite my 40% cash rate - but I am truly in the black and not by a tiny margin.

My cash game stats are largely meaningless, as I have only played 18 sessions in 4 years.  I didn't enter precise times, but I put 4 hours for each session as that's what it is at my home game.

$927 in profit total.

$12.52 per hour.

22.5 bb per hour.

16 profitable sessions - 88%  (including 4 card room sessions, the rest are in my garage.)

Like I said, way too small to mean much; but it's nice to know I'm ahead and that I may have a cash game career ahead of me if tournaments take me out to the woodshed one too many times.


I should note that I have not included the two major WSOP events that I entered with my own money - both this year, the Colossus and the Monster Stack, $565 and $1500 respectively.  I am not bankrolled in any way shape or form for these events, and thus decided to do it to 'take a shot' and have some fun.  If I had cashed I would have not included those results into the app.



Well, there it is.  I really overall feel very positive about this, and have a much clearer picture of where I am at in the 'long game' that is poker.

I would encourage anyone who is at the level of enthusiast or higher, to get a poker results tracking app and keep it updated.  You might be pleasantly surprised, or you might find you have things to work on.   In my case it was both - I'm over the moon that I've shelled out 18K and managed to come back with 25K, but I also know I have to get that cashing percentage down a bit.  Less cashes over all, but more big cashes to get more profits!

Can't wait to get back on the felt with this new sense of self awareness - it's going to be a grand old time!

It's not you, it's me...

So next year will mark the 10 year anniversary of my home game, Pepper Street Poker.

As you likely know, if you peruse the blog over there, I host a monthly multi-table tournament.  The buy in is $40 and it's a very social, very friendly gathering of chums & chums of chums that typically sees about 20 people playing for about 6 hours for a $300 top prize and a trophy and a picture on the wall and a seat in the Tournament of Champions.

All in all a fun time, and a grand time.  Grander I'd say than probably 90% of all home poker games.

I've had a blast hosting it, and goodness knows I've also had great results, especially lately.  This year alone I've won 3 tournaments out of 10, and also finished second twice, and both of those times the hour was late and I managed to negotiate an even money chop in exchange for a seat that I already had locked up.   I also made these deals truthfully, for the health of the game, as I don't think winning nearly half of my own tournaments looks that great.

Anyways, I've always enjoyed hosting, it has it's own rewards beyond just playing cards.  But it is a lot of work.   A lot of work.

Set up begins around 1 or 2pm on Saturday, at the latest.  Because it's multiple tables, with typically around 20 players coming, it means I have to set up 3 tables just in case I get last minute extra players.  Then there's the chips, cards, buttons, snack tables etc.  Plus I usually use a leaf blower to clean out the garage first.    And then I also go to the store for snacks.  All told, with this trip included, set up at a pace that isn't frantic is at least 3 hours.

And then sometimes it's too hot to play in the garage, so I have to set up on the patio, which adds another hour.

Anyways, I'm not complaining really - I've always enjoyed these duties, and the reward of hosting a game that everyone loves has been more than worth it.

But lately, when it comes to poker,  my mind has been on a bit of a wanderlust; that is, as the game in my garage goes on, so too does the game at large; and increasingly that's where my thoughts and body go.

I've recognized over the past few years, that poker is much larger than my little monthly Saturday night party.  I've been hosting these big tournaments because I enjoy it, but also because I felt in the past that if I didn't, I wouldn't be playing too much poker.

These days, I average one Sunday a month at the Bike or Commerce, in their daily tournament; I also take time every other week during the week to go to a home game in North Hollywood or Garner's game out near Culver City.    So were my game to disappear entirely, I would still be playing a substantial amount.

With this in mind, I lately have been asking myself - is the work and time I put in to hosting a big monthly multi-table tournament worth it?  Looking at this with total honesty and transparency I can say there are for sure pros and cons.

PROS:

-  I have a roster of over 70 players, 2/3 of which make it out at least once a year and 1/3 of which make it almost every month.   They love the game, and by and large they are all nice people.

-  I take a lot of pride in running the best home poker game that I've ever played in; I've played in some lovely home games, but none even come close to the level of organization and finesse that mine has.

-  There is at this point, a rather long history of this game.  A perpetual plaque on the wall has six names for player of the year over the better part of the past decade; even before things got all official, we've been playing in this garage for almost 10 years.  I would hate to see that simply up and vanish.


But then there are a few cons -


CONS:

 -  I increasingly look at my game as more of an obligation than something I enjoy.  I'd say the ratio is now 60/40 obligation to enjoyment.  It used to be about 80/20 in the reverse.  This is because of two things...

-  Longtime players that I'd grown quite fond of, are no longer playing.  Some have moved away, some have moved on to other things, and even a couple have left this earth.   Most notably one of the rocks (not rock as in tight player, but rock as in reliably always at the game and a great guy) recently had a blow up with another player and now refuses to show up when he does.   Another huge rock just moved to Florida.   So now I don't have them, and they've been replaced with younger and perfectly nice people, but not people that I have a decade long friendship with.  Honestly, it's been tough because I didn't realize how much I enjoyed the social aspect of the game until some of my best buds were gone.

-  I have a never ending hunger to improve my game and get good results out in the wild (in card rooms and casinos) and I don't know if the game in my garage with randoms who often are terrible players (though lovely people) is doing my game more harm than good.   It does boost my confidence  somewhat to beat up on other players who think they're hot shit but really are just toddlers in the game, but that's about the only positive thing.  And really, it's not that positive.  These are nice folks that I barely know, and it doesn't help my heart very much to run them over - I'd much rather pummel fish in a casino, not nice kids who just want to enjoy their evening.



Ultimately though, I can come up with a list of good and bad things about the monthly tournaments in my garage, but it really boils down to one question -  "Is hosting this game going to get me closer to my goal?"

What is my goal?  Well it hit me last night light a bolt of lighting - so hard that I shot up off of the couch.

I was watching the Main Event of the WSOP, thinking about how much I admired the guys around the featured table and thinking to myself - they're very good, because they play every day, I may never be that good; but I'm certainly capable of it.  I really know I can do it - within the framework of my life that I love.  I can be there some day.

And so that's it - I have to make this decision about my Saturday game, keep it the same or take a break - based on my one goal; the goal of succeeding in large poker tournaments.   There's good things about it, maybe more good things than bad things, but that's not material.  What matters ultimately is this one question and my one desire.

Here's exactly what I want - I've cashed for 1, 2 even 3 thousand dollars before.  I'm really aiming to the upper four figures or even five figures.   I've got the $2700 thing, now I'm ready for the $8000 thing or even the $17,000 thing or yes, maybe even the $43,000 thing.

I know I can do it, with more serious play under my belt - and the Saturday tournament in my garage, lovely as it it, is not serious play.


So, Saturday tournament, this is the truth - it's not you, it's me.

We only get one life, so I have to use it with me in mind, and in this case, I'm going to give up my Saturday tournament hosting duties for awhile - to concentrate on me and what I want.   To drastically improve my game and to see big results in a large (for me) buy-in tournament.

To this end, I still very much plan to keep playing poker in my garage.

Rather than a big elaborate multi-table event once a month on a Saturday that takes up 4 hours of set-up and 7 hours of playing, I think I will be much better served by hosting a very simple one table poker night that takes 10 minutes to set up and that happens during the week.

The plan is to come home from work, pull up in my driveway around 6:30, open the garage door, plop open a table, drag some chairs over, then pull out the cards and chips (which will already be set up to hand out in stacks) and then go inside and have a nice dinner.   I'll return at 7:25 to sit down and welcome players at the table, take their monies, punch up the tournament software on my i-pad and start.

Water will already be in the cooler, nuts and bowls on the shelf.   Music will be via my i-phone and jbl charge.  No preparation for anything else.

I'd love for this to happen every other Wednesday night.   Every 3 or 4 tournaments or so, we'll break it up with a low stakes cash game or maybe even a tournament different from NLHE such as Omaha/8 or HORSE.

I realize that I very well may be killing the golden goose here, no doubt I will lose quite a few players, hopefully not too many regulars.   It would be a shame to not be able to have a full table every week, but I'm prepared to live with it, or even potentially the loss of my game entire.

My poker education has to come first, and I have no doubt that I will get LOADS more benefit in hosting a bi-weekly single table full of folks that I know well and whose games I respect and who I can talk poker with during and after.

I wrote up a whole post, similar to this one but maybe not quite so revealing, and was going to post it on the Pepper Street blog as an announcement that the Saturday tournaments were coming to an end, but now I think I'll just shorten the post tremendously, leaving out explanations and simply stating that we're on a break from the Saturday MTT's.    People in general, unless they are my close friends, don't really give a shit why things are changing and really, I don't blame them.

So, that's why I have this post here.  It feels good to really articulate why this change has come about.

In the end, if my game does implode, it won't be the end of the world.  I have a couple of nice home games that I can always attend - and there's always the Bike and Commerce with their low cost dailies that are great venues for working hard and seriously on my game.  Best of all, no bruised egos and no hurt feelings - at least on my end or with people that I am familiar with and also trying to entertain and host.   I think my game will get better when I can leave the hosting duties to the professionals - and those hosting duties that I do take on are much less taxing.


I'm excited about this big change in my poker life, I like that I am choosing to focus more on the game and learning from my good friends; I am relieved that I don't have such a large obligation to entertain entirely on my shoulders anymore.   Can't wait for next year to start!


EDIT / ADDENDUM

I never rush into big decisions like this and change things immediately,  I like to 'sleep on it' so to speak - give myself time to think about and mentally digest.  Writing about a big decision is one form of this digestion, and after writing the above, I'm having a bit of a change of heart.

I still want to cut way down on the Saturday tournament, but doing away with it entirely seems a bit too much.  As I said above, there is a history here - a perpetual plaque on the wall and a legacy of sorts that I would hate to see vanish.

So my tentative plan right now, at least until I change my mind again, is to still throw Saturday night tournaments, probably once every two or three months or so - doubling the buy-in at least so people will feel it's worth coming out and playing for; and making it a biggish deal.   Stay tuned, I may change my mind yet again before the year is up.

Interim (WSOP 2015.02)

I guess this is my official 2nd report on the 2015 WSOP.  I originally thought it would be an upbeat and bubbly straight ahead report, but I first scribbled down my innermost poker thoughts on this year's sojourn to Vegas, and when I looked back at it I thought to myself, self, this is a pretty good encapsulation even if it is light on the details.

As you can see on the first report, my results were less than stellar.  Sad to say they were even bleaker on the second go round, with not even a measly min-cash to temper the beating.

The weekend of the Monster Stack I only had 3 major entries and 1 fun side event, the Omaha 8 tournament at Orleans.  While I did enjoy myself, the card-centric nature of fixed limit tournaments combined with my lack of experience and any significant skills worked together to guarantee my relatively early exit.  I chased where I shouldn't have, and blanked even when the odds happened to be in my favor.

Alas, my 3 NLHE entries, the details of which have since faded from my memory, were also fruitless.  At the conclusion of my inauspicious Monster Stack run (barely 4 hours) I made a bee-line for the airport and quickly returned home, licking my wounds and very glad to be back with the family.

I was, indeed, thoroughly disappointed.  But on reflection and with the passage of time, I am better than okay with how things turned out.

My poker brethren also partook in the Monster Stack - four others actually, more from my garage than have ever gone forth in the WSOP with their own money (though one was staked) than ever before.  All four struck out, two of them relatively quickly like me, the other two found a more prolonged death well into day 2 and nowhere near the money.

All four were no doubt crestfallen as I was, but I wonder if they look back as I do and see the big picture and thus the brighter side.

Tournament poker is exceedingly difficult to conquer, for seasoned pro, serious semi-pro, hard core amateur and total newbie alike.   Once again, Daniel Negraneau is halfway through the series with over a dozen entries and only a single cash to his name.  But still, he is one of the best tournament players in the world and has no reason to doubt this.

Carrying it further, the arrogance that we as poker players bring into a major tournament is wholly necessary not only for both our sanity and our egos but to help insure the best result possible.  Ergo, we only play as good as we feel, and the better we feel the better we play.  You have to be a bit cocky in these things, even when you have every logical reason to not be.

I didn't feel especially outclassed in the Monster Stack, but I was keenly aware that the three players to my direct left were better than I was.  The others more to my right, were for sure softer, but if they'd had position on me, I would've been forced to reevaluate this summation.

Gladly, my good friend Allen, for the first time in his poker career, found himself at his final Monster Stack table, surrounded by sharks.  I say gladly, because I feel it is a very important part of every poker players career and evolution to be confronted by the cold fact that poker is for real and truly a skill game.  Hand in hand with this, there are plenty of very skilled players out there, and eventually you will run into them; and in doing so you will realize and acknowledge that they are, indeed, better than you.

I found this out years ago, at the 2011 WSOP, but it was good to be reminded again.  Had I run better, and in more than a few instances played better in 2015, I might have been able to hang and hang on.  But I was determined not to fold my way to a min-cash, were it in the cards, which, judging by Allen and Jeff's results, it was not.

So at the time, I was dejected.  In hindsight, I am at peace and in some ways rejuvenated.

Last Saturday night 19 of us amateurs returned to my garage for a good old $40 tournament.  I ran pretty well, but I also played exceptionally well, as every opponent I faced fell squarely into the category of food rather than someone that would eat me.  There was one opponent that might occasionally take a chunk out of me, but he was on my near right, and so I was able to avoid and/or outmaneuver him just by virtue of that position.

The others were simply fodder.  The bet sizing tells that abounded were mainly what kept me in good stead.  Big bet?  Big hand.  Small bet?  Mediocre hand or air.  It really was that simple.  And it was a great reminder that skill ultimately rules at this silly game that has inflamed my passions so frequently of late.

I take solace that I wasn't a chump less than 4 hours into my WSOP event - I was simply fodder.  And so were my compatriots.  Could I or anyone of them have gotten hit by the deck a bit and gotten into the money?  Absolutely.  Were any of us destined for a truly deep run and maybe even the final table?  Well, probably not.  Stranger things have happened, but truthfully, there are not only a zillion land mines to avoid, but there is an absolutely genuine skill gap.

I do honestly believe that I have been narrowing that gap little by little every year, as I study and work on my game - but I refuse to buy into hype, either my own or ESPN's, that I'm only a few lucky hands away from a six figure score.

Poker is very much like life, in that there is a statistically infinitesimal amount of people who have hit it big mostly by luck.  But by far the vast majority of those who do succeed and especially the ones who succeed big, get there by doing the work.  It's not enough to splash around with play chips a few times a week, or hit Commerce once or twice a month.  It truly isn't.   The poker players who learn how to accumulate chips in a tournament and hang on to them don't take short cuts or read books or attend a poker clinic - they put in the time at the tables.  Period.  The ones who play every day, and work hard at improving, those are the ones we end up seeing under the hot lights.

As a man with a family and a job, I recognize that I will likely never be in this group; and frankly, the amount of work and devotion that is required to climb that mountain is beyond not only my budget but my sanity as well.

It has been said over and over that poker is a tough way to make an easy living; I can easily take that farther and say it's a miserable way to go through life if that's all you have to think about.  I love, love, love poker - and I want to continue doing so.   Therefore I can wholly accept that the odds of a five figure cash in the WSOP are truly pretty long, and the odds of getting into the six figure / final table club are basically nil.

This thought is both sobering and liberating.  It gives me both the pause and the spark I need to carry on, playing when I can, but always putting my family and livelihood first.

How's this for a strange metaphor?  Poker is like the Okavango Delta in Botswana.  Wild, vast, and yet obtainable with a bit of cash and a sense of adventure.  But stay too long and you're likely to get malaria.  Wander into the wrong area and you very well might get eaten.

Go to a photo Safari camp.  Pay your $1100 a night for a week and enjoy.  Take photos and video.  Then get your ass home.  You are not a Nat Geo film maker, you aren't in the delta every day and you really wouldn't want to be.  Sure, on some random vacation you may stumble across a lion taking down a zebra and get the footage of a lifetime; but odds are - you won't.   Doesn't mean you can't enjoy the splendor and the journey.

And so that's it for me - I'm looking at the WSOP like I would a Safari.  I would love to see a leopard fighting a hyena, but I'll be very happy seeing an elephant browsing on leaves at sunset.  I know it's going to be expensive, but I know that it's disposable income, and I'm not paying for a two month stay at the most expensive resort.  I'm going for a week, and I'm staying on a local reserve where the chef is good but not great and the camp could charitably be called 'rustic'.

The Colossus really seems to me to be the best value, the budget Safari that still has a chance of capturing a great moment or two.   I would be thrilled to have a WSOP cash on my Hendon Mob page, and this seems entirely reasonable and obtainable, my first two tables were amazingly soft.  I would rather do this every year than drop another grand and a half and go up against sharks who splash around every day in the Monster Stack.

Still, I have no regrets and I'm glad I did it.  Next year - a different approach.   I would love to stay in Vegas for a full week, but instead of flying I will drive up, instead of Aria I'll stick with the Orleans.  No rental car and no flight means I can afford a half a dozen more buy-ins to smaller events.  Ideally, I would play local dailies (not tiny turbos, but real events like at the Aria or Binions) during the week and then fire two bullets in the Colossus come the weekend.  In a perfect world I would have cashed enough up until then to free roll into it.

We will see.   Until then, I'm going to remember to appreciate the game as a vast and beautiful (though sometimes dangerous) savannah - a place that I love to visit on occasion, but one that I respect and stay away from a good amount of the time.