Sometimes Perplexed

Normally I recognize pretty clearly where I'm at in my game. Tournament poker is hard, on any given day I am okay to fairly good. But sometimes, on occasion, I am perplexed.

With the wife and kid away this week, I'm taking the opportunity to play live every night until I leave to Vegas. Yesterday I played the HPC 10K nooner - and it was fine, it was great. I knew right where I was at. I was able to make things happen as normal, and when the bubble approached I made a decent/marginal call with a pair of 10's for all of my dwindling chips.

A pair of sixes called me as well, so I was in good shape to triple up after a helpful flop of 772, but alas, the AQ that had massively overbet (the one that I called, he had been betting this stupidly for awhile) spiked a six outer on the turn and then for good measure hit a five outer on the river for two pair.

No worries - I was fine with my play, it was then or never, as I was set to be crippled by the blinds soon enough.

Still comfy, and not too bummed at all, I entered the second chance tournament at 430 also knowing that I could head on over to my brothers house in Century City for a tasty dinner and some nice company afterwards.

For the first hour or so, every thing was cool. I took a hit here or there, I also made some great reads and was able to induce bluffs (something that I excel at at HPC, there are too many people who think aggression is the only gear) and get paid by slow playing top pair more than once.

Then I took a pretty big hit, calling a short stacks shove from the small blind. I had AJ in the big blind, he had A9. Flop was xJ9, turn was a blank, river - the case 9 (as someone said aloud they had folded 109.

I was especially proud of myself as I had 100% zero reaction to the 1 outer spiking - I was 98% after the turn and he hit. I was cool as a cucumber - it was standard, it was poker. The oaf who pounded the table and send "Send it!" literally had zero affect on me, I was utterly zen about it, as his short stack double up hurt me but didn't cripple me. Others moaned and groaned for me, I was chillax to the max.

I'm used to the occasional ding from hell, and I'm also very cognizant that just as often (when I do happen to get my money in bad) I am on the suck out end of these events. They are just part of the landscape to me these days, and I have to say it makes me a much happier player and person as well.

What gets to me though still, even more than if I misplay a hand even, is what happened to me next.

Over the next 90 minutes, I proceeded to be as utterly card dead as I have ever been in this game. Ever.

After 20 minutes of utter shit on shit - J4, 103, 29, etc. I began keeping track. Here is my hand history for 73 minutes of play.

Zero double paint. Zero. That means no JK, KQ, or JQ. No J10 either.

Zero pairs. Zero. Save for a single pair of Jacks - and it unfolded like this.

I'm in the cuttoff, early on through this dry spell and I look down at Jacks. Hooray! Blinds are pretty big, a couple of big stacks, I'm definitely going to shove.

Young turk UTG raises it up, no problem I'm still going to shove. Old man rock to my right shoves it in, he has me covered. Old man rock has played fewer hands than me. Yuck.

Really? How can I fold? Best case scenario he has AK. Otherwise he's for sure QQ, KK, AA.

I have quite a few chips still, this will be for my tournament life.

I fold.

Young Turk snap calls with queens. Old man rock flips up aces.

Wheeee.

My last pair of the day.

Zero suited connectors. Zero.

Best hand in 90 minutes besides JJ? 109 os. Made a standard raise from the cutoff. Flat called by the button, board comes AK7. Didn't bother to c-bet the LAG button who insta barreled my check.

By the end, as the blinds devoured my stack, I was laughing out loud. Any Ace, I was shoving.

Zero aces in the last half hour. Zero.

K3. UTG. Thinking about it... Sigh. Fold.

84. 93. 106.

Fold. Fold. Fold.

Now the blinds are super nasty. A third of my chips will be in the pot with my next big blind.

73. 94. Q4.

82.

Now my big blind is in. I haven't looked.

A raise from the big stack in middle position. A shove from a small stack on the button.

A three way pot if I stick in my chips, a third of which are already there anyway.

I drop them into the pot. "I haven't looked."

We turn up. Big stack has AK. Short stack has a pair of nines. I have Q2 os.

Rainbow flop brings an ace, the river is a nine.

Easy game.

So this is my quandary - what do I do when I run beyond cold? Is it possible to play for hours, and not see a single playable hand, and even if you do you run into action behind you that tells you your hand is no good? Yes. Last night proved that to me for the first time, beyond a shadow of a doubt.

I have to admit, I was steaming a bit beyond slightly as I texted my brother and let him know I wouldn't be joining him and his wife after all for ravioli. It was really, really, really frustrating to be utterly powerless to do anything - I couldn't even gambool it up and play badly or spew. I just had to sit there and take it. My one or two attempts to steal early on in the dry spell, didn't work out - through no glaring fault of my own, I just happened to run into two bigger hands.

The first time I was in the cutoff and it folded to me, I literally pretended to look at my cards and popped it, I was three bet large by a rockish small blind. I looked down at 62os. To big of a reraise to call, even in position, so I let it go. The second time was a button steal, I raised big with trash to clean out the limpers, but one hung on. Then he led out on the flop with a pot sized bet that I blanked on completely, so again I relinquished.

No Limit Hold-Em tournaments, more than any other form of poker, have shown me again and again, that they are less about the cards and more about the players. I have won tournaments without any pocket pair bigger than tens, I have cashed for thousands of dollars with nary a premium save for one or two. But this was the first time in my modern poker career, that I have been truly stymied by a seemingly endless avalanche of trash.

And it fried me worse than any bad beat ever could. Mostly because I was beating myself up for feeling so helpless. "I can do this, I need to man up and get it in with garbage!" But then I would stare really hard at K2 and realize what a hopeless situation it really was. The next hand will be better. Really.

So - I'm back in the saddle again tonight, for the $90 evening donkament at HPC. I've had poor results with the nightly's so far, but I've only played maybe 4 of them. Hopefully I will get a face card or two, without the requisite 3 or 5, and I can make something happen.

One thing's for sure, if I continue to run as horrific as last night, I won't have a third of my chips go in on a big blind.

In any case, if the run cold thing has to continue for a few days (as I plan to play tonight, tomorrow night at home for a cash game and Wednesday night back at HPC as well) then that's okay - as long as it's over and done with by the time the WSOP rolls around.

Plan much?

I love to pre-plan a preposterous amount.  So here is my hypothetical
2011 World Series of Poker Vegas trip itinerary. Keep in mind that although this schedule is based on the very likely time line that I will bust out of my World Series of Poker adventure, it doesn't mean in any way shape or form that I don't really believe I can go deep. I really do - but planning is mucho fun for me, and if I do go deep in my bracelet event, there won't be much left for me to plan!

As an aside, before winning my seat, I had originally thought I would partake in a bunch of satellites at the Rio - but now as that would entail the hassle of having to enter more multiple day events if I got lucky, I will content myself with a single Deep Stack at the Rio and of course the big $1500 event in which I'm staked.

Fri. - 6/24 - Arrive @8am

9am - Monte Carlo - $50
This one is simply because I know I'm going to get bored sitting around waiting for my 2pm tournament, the Rio Deep Stack, to get underway. The Monte Carlo's poker room at 9am is a fantastically mellow and ultra-low pressure environment for a trashy $50 tournament with an utterly ridiculous structure and equally silly recreational players. The perfect pre-meal palate cleanser before I head over to the Rio. It is almost assured to be under 3 hours and if I do cash (which I have done here before) it will be minimal anyway.

2pm - Rio Deep Stack - $240
I'll probably check into the Orleans before heading over to the Mecca of Poker for 2011.  The 2pm Rio Deepstack is my main appetizer and an ideal way to get my feet wet for the big day.   It takes place in the Amazon room or the Pavillion room - so essentially I'm playing in the exact same environs, and with the same table, chips, dealer, players, as the WSOP.   Who could ask for a better warm-up?   I am so glad I changed my travel plans to arrive a day earlier - I think it would have been a big mistake to play on the same day I flew in.  If I do happen to go deep in this particular tournament, it could be a very late night.  Last year this one typically finished up as the sun came up; but I know they've tweaked the structure a fair bit so it's not quite so deep, hopefully it won't go too much beyond midnight.   If it does, I just pray that I get into some real money.

7pm - Orleans Daily - $75
This one is entirely optional - and I know I'll want to do it if I only get a few hours play out of the previous tourney. Again, the Orleans is my nemesis - still the best daily tournament structure for the money, the players are straightforward and no better than the regulars I routinely hang with at Hollywood Park; and yet a cash here continues to elude me. Eventually I'll probably learn to give up on this crowd, but a big part of me really wants to get this monkey off my back. If I've played over 4 hours at the Rio there's a very good chance I'll just blow this one off to get ready for the big day.


Sat.            6/25

Noon - WSOP #43 - $1500   (Staked)
This is it! The main course! I'll likely get to the Rio far too early. I'm going to register the weekend prior so that I don't have to worry about signing up. Instead I'm hoping I can take advantage of the free seminar being offered in the Brasilia room, I believe "Jungleman" Cates will be lecturing on post-flop play. Jungleman is an online cash game phenom, so I know it will be good to soak up some poker thinking before I sit down. If it turns out the Brasilia room is a hassle in any way shape or form, I'll quickly blow it off and walk around a bit before making my way to my table.

Again, playing the day before in the same room will likely help alleviate the butterflies a bit. I just have to remember, like I would in my 20's when I would umpire a State Varsity baseball game, it's just another game. It's just another tournament. I'm also going to keep very aware, that my main goal in this is to savor the experience. To enjoy myself. To be friendly, to not fret - this is a remarkable once in a lifetime opportunity, and it would be a real shame to squander it with stress and doubt. There are plenty of guys worse than me who have luck boxed their way into the money, into big money, into a final table and even into a bracelet. Why not me? I have to focus on making the best decision I can at the moment, and then let go, let God and let the cards fall where they may.

I plan to snap pictures with my phone best I can, and to tweet like crazy in between hands and on breaks. Be sure to follow me @manzoni on twitter.

As far as strategy - what can I say. I've found in the more and more live events I attend, that I can't really go in with too much of a heavily defined plan. It all really is dependent on the players that I find myself among. Since there are hour long rounds, and I'm starting with 180 big blinds, there will be some time to observe before jumping in.

Really, the best plan I can commit to is to play pretty much the opposite of the tenor of the table. If I catch early on that most people are timid and folding a lot, I'll widen my range and be prepared to get aggressive, even if a flop blanks. If I find that there are 3 or more maniacs eager to get it all in - wanting very much to go big or go home, I may have to pretty much shut down and wait for premiums to arrive - or if I can speculate cheaply, I hope to set mine and bust a bully or two. But when the antes roll around, all bets - literally, are off.

As I've said here before, just two entries ago, I really have zero interest in playing for 8 hours or more and not coming anywhere near the money. I want to savor as intensely as I can for about 4 hours - and then well before the antes kick in at level six, regardless of who I'm facing - I will open up tremendously and be ready to push, push and push some more. If it turns out that I have to bluff into a monster pot, I'm ready to do it - hopefully I can get lucky and get the bulk of my chips in with the goods. I will not squeak and survive, simply because my only reward for doing so will be to exhaust myself with no real chance at cashing. I've got to shoot for 200 big blinds or more by the end of the first day, to have a realistic opportunity at a financial windfall. This isn't to sell myself short or to insure that I implode - this is just reality. I hope if I have to tell a tale of triple barrel bluffing off my chips into the nuts, that my backers (who are all real poker players) will be able to grasp the reality of the situation and be understanding.

In many ways - my fate has already been decided. If I agonize and beat myself up over not making a mistake, I will be distracted and disproportionately nervous. If I accept that there are certain things, or rather certain cards, that I can't control; and that I'm going to play the best I can and leave it up to the poker Gods, I know I'm going to have a great event; and beyond that a great long weekend of playing a heck of a lot of poker.

So with my acceptance and poker zen completely in place, I'll now continue with the silly over-planning. Regardless of how my main dish turns out, I still plan to enjoy some tasty second courses and a variety of deserts.

7pm - Mirage Daily - $60
The remainder of tournaments on the 25th obviously are entirely optional. Even if I can barely make this one at the Mirage, I'll likely pass if I've played 5+ hours at the Rio. I may pass regardless. I have a feeling that whatever does happen, even say if I bust after an hour, I'll be mentally stretched and fried. I may just want to hit the pool back at the hotel, or maybe catch an afternoon flick. A long walk will also probably do me some good.

But if for some reason I'm up for more poker - I plan to head down to the good old Mirage for some always rockin', usually drunken, recreational player fun in their turbo structured nightly. Unfortunately, it looks like according to their schedule, that they've discontinued their bounty tournaments - which were always a blast. Nonetheless, I know I'll get good fun value out of this venue.

10pm - T.I. Turbo -  $50
I don't see any way I'll realistically be up for this one, especially if I make it to the dinner break at the WSOP. BUT, and yes, it's a big but - if Cali and company are with me and circling the wagons, the super turbo at T.I. might be just the ticket. Always fun, always rather pointless, you can't really go wrong with the fastest dealers and the smoke-free-est room on the strip.


Sun.    6/26

I should note that at some point on this day I'm going to check in on Cali and Eric, who will be entering WSOP #45 - a 1K bracelet event. I don't want to distract them, but I think they'd appreciate a small dose of moral support with a quick howdy from the rail.

1pm - Aria Daily - $125
The morning after, I plan to sleep in. Then I'm off to the dailies. Good old Aria is not the tourist aquarium it used to be, but their daily is still the best structured deal around. If I haven't cashed yet, this is where I'll be headed.

or

Noon - Venetian DSE - $340
If by some weird circumstance I have made the money elsewhere (probably on Friday, but it could happen post-WSOP on Saturday) I very well may join Sven in this Venetian special (and potentially 3 day) event. After the WSOP, this shouldn't be high pressure at all - but it will nonetheless likely be a much tougher field than at the Rio, but the prize pool will be pretty bad ass.

7pm - Venetian Daily - $125
If I choose the Aria first, then this one will be my evening pick. (If I bust from the Venetian DSE then I'll make the Aria's 7pm). The Venetian will still be running their 7pm second chance, and it will be a good opportunity to hook back up with Sven who will likely be in the DSE (and hopefully still playing in it.)

10pm - T.I. Turbo - $50
For sure if I'm busted out of the 7pm, I'll be making this one - especially specially if I didn't make it to T.I. the night before. This poker room, as crappy as the tournament actually is, is always a place I seek out.


Mon.    6/27

Noon - Golden Nugget - $120
This time I'm going to do it, dammit! It's been almost 3 years, and I haven't made it downtown, but this time there's real incentive. According to 2+2, my poker forum of choice, the Nugget's Grand Series is the best structured by far of all the one day lower buy in special events. I'm going to make a very real and concerted effort to plan on this one - because I want a new experience, and with a good ass structure and a slightly smaller (though no doubt tougher) field on a Monday, I have as good a chance as any to make a real cash on this one. I've got to check it out! If by some bad luck, I bust out super quick in this one, I will high tail it over to Binion's for their 2pm NLHE.

7pm - Orleans H.O.R.S.E - $75
Here is my first really tasty bit of dessert - and I may avoid it if no one will play it with me, but Cali (assuming he busts on Sunday) will very likely come along for the ride. Since I am dead money here, if I get no takers - I'll likely head back to the Aria or Venetian. I don't really want to be downtown after the sun goes down.

10pm - T.I. Turbo - $50
Good old reliable! Really looking forward to the TD recognizing me when I come back over and over on this trip!


Tues.   6/28

Noon - Caesars Mega Stack - $250
or
2pm - Binion's Classic PLO8 - $200
Not sure which one of these I'll pony up for, though I'm leaning pretty heavily towards the NLHE event. If Cali is super enthusiastic about the PLO8, I'll join him - but I have the feeling that the price point will cool his jets. The Caesars event I may also blow off if the boys are in the mood for something more modestly priced - Aria will always be there for me.

7pm - Orleans Daily - $75
Finally, if I'm still itching for one more, I'll make sure it's close to my bed, as I'm flying out at the crack on Wednesday. I'll change my flight and stay another night if Cali goes deep obviously, or if for some crazy reason I final table!