Let's get Specific

A few months out from my LearnWPT class and a few weeks out from of my WPT Main Event experience, my thoughts are turning to the summer and of course Vegas and the World Series of Poker.

This year is a first for my home game, we are going to send someone to the actual Main Event of the WSOP - a $10,000 buy in event.   There are 8 of us in our group and we will all put up an equal share of the buy in - then we will play a satellite tournament and the winner takes the cash, enters the Main and keeps 60% of any winnings and gives the remaining 40% to the group to be divided evenly.

In preparation for this monumental event, both the satellite and the Main itself we have been all talking through hands with each other and have also held a couple of discussion groups where we talk poker and strategy.

Getting together as a group is fun and productive, but it can also be overwhelming and hard to remember everything that I wanted to discuss.  There's lots of creative minds in our group, and in just a few hours it's tough for everyone to get out what they want to say and ask of each other.

Thankfully I have this here blog - so Imma write about what I think is the most important stuff that I'm trying to pass on to the group.

Keep in mind, yes I write this stuff down for my poker compatriots but I also certainly do it for myself to try and help retain the info that I've learned.

You must forgive me, as I'm certain to get some things wrong here, but I think it's important that I try to recall as much as I can from just my memory of what I think is pertinent to our group.


The first point that I really wanted to impress on the guys is this -

"I didn't think you had it" by itself is bad poker.

This idea that we can stare someone down and read their mind is quite simply not true any more than Sasquatch or ghost stories are real.  Now, some people do believe in that stuff, and good for them, but I think it's a bunch of hooey and I feel the same way about 'soul reading' in poker.

Once in a blue moon, yes, an opponent will exhibit a physical behavior that helps us make an informed decision; but it is a behavior that is real, not some gut instinct from our point of view.

Our poker decisions are based upon information - not gut instinct or our mood at a particular moment.

How we extract that information is very specific - it is an actual strategy that we can follow, a plan if you will.

I don't think it's as important that I get into specific strategies, for example like the ones I learned at WPT, what is far more important is to impress that meaningful and specific strategy is the key to success in the game.


By far the biggest leak in our group I can see is that most of us don't have a specific pre-flop plan.

I would like to zero in on the largest factor that goes into this leak - we are all calling WAY too much pre-flop.

Calling to 'see a flop' and hoping to hit is a terrible, terrible way to play tournament poker. Hope is NOT a strategy.  We have to have a methodical approach, and I firmly believe that approach involves much less calling.  When we do call it should be only under very specific circumstances.

Having a specific and narrow 'calling criteria' that is - defining specifically the kind of hands we can call pre-flop with does a couple of things...

First, it dramatically increases our aggression pre-flop because we are only getting involved most of the time by raising.   This alone is something I think our entire group could benefit from.

Second, good things happen when we raise, we thin the field, we likely get information and we get value from our good hands immediately or we give ourselves a way to take down the hand pre-flop altogether.

Conversely in most spots when we just call we are putting ourselves at a disadvantage.  We are relinquishing the lead and the initiative to someone else, we are gaining zero information about the players to our left (or to our right for that matter) and worst of all we are giving ourselves only one way to win by HOPING to hit the flop.

A losing strategy in and of itself, made worse because often the decision to 'see a flop' is based on nothing more than a gut feeling of "Well, this could be a good hand if I hit, let's see a flop".  A recipe for burning chips unnecessarily, considering everyone whiffs the flop 2/3 of the time.

In our last hand laboratory I promised to share with everyone my calling criteria - I shared a bit at the time but couldn't remember every detail and couldn't expect others to remember all of what I was describing either.

So here's the criteria I use when I look down at my cards pre-flop and ask myself "Can I call?"

1 - I have to have a speculative hand.  For now I define a spec hand similar to the way LearnWPT does -

             Pocket pairs, 22-99 (rarely I will make an exception with 1010 or JJ)
             Suited connectors that don't include paint except for J10.
             1 or 2 gap suited connectors that don't include paint.
             Suited aces that don't include paint except for AJ.

2 - I can't be the first caller, the hand must be multi-way (at least one caller) already.

3 - The amount of the call has to be small,  5% or less of the shortest stack in the hand.


If my hand or the situation don't meet any one of these three requirements I have to raise or fold.  I cannot call.


This is what I mean by a specific strategy.  If you have A, then you automatically do B.

Now, in all strategies there can of course be exceptions, but we have to have very good reasons to deviate.  That is a whole other discussion.

As an aside, the reason I can call with these particular hands is that when these hands do hit they tend to hit big multi way, so we want multiple opponents involved when we hit our set or otherwise smash the board.

I don't think it's super important or necessary for the others in my group to adopt this exact calling criteria, but I think it's very important that they formulate some kind of specific pre-flop calling criteria for their games.

Otherwise there is going to be far too much "I like this hand, let's see a flop and see what happens" nonsense at the table.  Hope is not a strategy, especially hope for something that only happens one time out of three.

By carving out specific guidelines of what kind of circumstances and hands you need to call pre-flop, it will free up mental resources to focus on other elements of the hand, especially the more important post flop streets.

I hope the guys reading this will give serious thoughts to a specific calling criteria that results in far less calling and more raising.

For the first couple days of the Main Event, I think we can get by playing passively and being super patient, but eventually as the money starts to approach, it will be time to actually play poker.  And a chance at a deep run is about ZERO if we are flat calling most of the time pre-flop.



As for post-flop, these were my thoughts for the lab, most of which I didn't get to.

Having a plan, a specific strategy, rather than relying on feelings, is also super important post-flop.

First...

If I have called pre-flop I am only continuing with the hand if I flop 2 pair or better or a draw with 8 outs or more.

Top pair hands are BIG trouble multi-way post flop.  I rely on hitting the flop hard against recreational players when I have a big hand and all they have is top pair.  We don't want to be one of those recs that stacks off with top pair, we want to be the ones who have called correctly and flop a monster.

C-Betting

The biggest example of a plan post-flop is something that nearly all of us do, c-bet (continuation bet), whether we hit the flop or not after we have been the last aggressor pre-flop.

I like to get very specific with my c-bet approach, beyond just "I'm going to fire most of the time"


If I am in position post flop and I MISS THE FLOP,  I am still c-betting 100% of the time unless...
             
*  I have 3 or more opponents.

* I have 2 opponents and I am out of position against at least 1 of them.

*  The board is coordinated (not with my hand) and I have 2 opponents.
     
In these situations I am checking back and likely giving up.  (I elaborate more below in the Turn 2nd Bullets section.)


If I HIT THE FLOP, middle pair, top pair, two pair or a draw of 8 outs or more - I am c-betting 100% of the time unless...

*  I have 4 opponents or more.  (I may still fire with 4, but they have to be very fishy)

* I am out of position against three or more opponents. 

 

*  All I have is middle pair and I am up against 2 or more opponents.


If I HIT THE FLOP with a set or better - I am c-betting 100% of the time unless...

*  I flop a monster with 1 opponent.  (a set on a wet board is not a monster)


The whole point of c-betting, keeping the initiative after being the pre-flop raiser, is so that we can win pots uncontested some of the time.  It's much more likely to happen against a single opponent as when we most commonly hit the board it will be with single pair hands that are much stronger against one player rather than several.

Whenever I c-bet, whether it's as a bluff, semi-bluff or a value bet on a made hand, I make sure that my sizing stays the same.  I don't want to tip off the strength of my hand by changing the size.

I know I can get more specific on my c-betting strategy, but this is what I can recall off the top of my head for now.  It is still something I need to work on.


The Turn

A simple default strategy I use on the turn...

If I c-bet as a bluff against 1 opponent and get called, I will check back the turn when -

* The turn is a complete blank for me. This is me giving up.

If I c-bet as a bluff and get called, I will fire a second bullet when -

* The turn is a scare card a higher card than any card on the flop, either an A, K or Q.
* The turn brings me 8 or more outs.
* The turn actually hits my hand - turns it into top pair good kicker or better.

Hopefully this will see me firing enough second bullets so that my opponents don't simply float me on the flop all the time and try to take away the pot on the turn. See below for what I do on the river after firing second bullet if I miss the river.

If I c-bet for value against a single opponent, I will check back the turn when -

*  I flopped a top pair good/top kicker type hand where I am either way behind or way ahead. I am checking back even if the turn brings a big draw to the board, I already gave my opponent the wrong price to call on the flop – I am not going to worry about letting him get there. I would much rather keep the pot small and evaluate the river.

If I c-bet for value and get called I will fire a second bullet when -

* My hand improves
* My medium strength hand (above) picks up a draw of 8 outs or more


In other words, against a single opponent if I have a top pair type hand, I'm looking to get 2 streets of value (either inducing a bluff on the river or me value betting on the river) for top two pair or stronger I will fire on the turn looking to get three full streets.


The River

A very simplified default river strategy I use is…

If I have checked back the turn after C-bet bluffing the flop, I have given up and will not fire at the river even if the river improves my hand. If this happens, it's really even more of a reason to check back because now I have showdown value.

If I have checked back the turn after C-betting the flop for value, I will likely call if my opponent leads out into me on the river. If my opponent checks, I very likely will bet the river for value if I think I can get called by a worse hand.

If I have fired a second bullet on the turn as a bluff I will only fire a third bullet as a bluff on the river if I have 12 outs or more on the turn.  If I have 11 outs or less on the turn I will give up on the river unless there is a compelling reason based on my opponents tendencies to fire again.

Obviously if I have fired a second bullet on the turn for value I am aiming for a third Street a value on the river most of the time. I may check back if the river brings in a draw that is unrelated to my hand.

I have said it before but I will say it again, I am not varying the size of my post flop bets based on the strength of my hand. The exception to this would be if I can exploit my opponents playing tendencies. If they are very fishy I very well might over bet the river as fish tend to over value their medium strength hands. I may also try this line against a very good player, as over betting tends to look pretty bluffy. But I have to be careful because if I overbet for value against a good player I have to be prepared to do the same thing with a bluff.

So that actually got a lot more specific than I intended, but I think it's good for me to write down my thoughts on how to approach the game. I hope any of you reading can get some value out of this and please, of course, I would love to hear feedback – positive or negative, the next time we see each other.

I truly can't wait to play for a seat in the greatest tournament on the planet with my friends. Even if I don't take it down I will genuinely be happy for whoever gets to go. I plan to be in Vegas at the Rio that week regardless of whether I win a seat or not, this will be the first time I have ever seen the main event and I can't wait!

Anonymous no more!

I've always kept my real name off of these pages, more out of habit than anything else.  As someone who is not a digital native, and who learned how to use a computer in high school and college, I still harbor this illusion that there is privacy online.

Anyways, I'm lifting that veil because I want to share two things here for posterity -  the first one (and my full name) you can find by clicking here.

Yes, that's me, dorkus maximus.



I really had the absolute best time playing in a WPT Main Event at Rolling Thunder Casino just outside of Sacramento.

I busted much earlier than I would've liked, squeezing all-in with 40 big blinds with AK and running into KK in the hands of a very active opponent, but the day and evening were about so much more than just a poker tournament.

This is going to sound like I'm doing a commercial for the World Poker Tour, but honestly I'm not.  I paid a good amount of money to learn how to better my tournament game - and I received that in very good fashion - I feel my expectations on that front were well exceeded.  You can read all of those praises in the previous post or click here.

But then after class was over, I won the satellite to a WPT Main Event, and every step along that journey has been really great thanks to the amazing team and organization that is the World Poker Tour.

The journey started out a bit rocky on my end thanks to my work schedule - I realized that I would not be able to make the Borgata Winter Open as a major tv show that I direct fell on that week.  I emailed my WPT liaison Adrian to let him know and apologize, after all this was the second tournament I had to turn down - I was unable to play last September when I was supposed to as well.

Adrian wrote back and gave me two other options!  Tampa in April or Sacramento in March, I chose the former because of proximity and the dates were good as well.

A week before my trip I received this in the mail -



A very encouraging note from Nick and his team, and a couple of patches to wear if I should choose to.  I was struck that they were asking and that I had the option to decline - why would I say no?  LearnWPT was the reason I was in the tournament in the first place!  I didn't care that this might tip off 'pros' that I was fresh meat, I know I'm not (well, not fresh, maybe a bit gamey) I wanted to honor the organization that had given me the tools to excel.

On the morning of the tournament I met Keta and her team - what a super friendly and thoughtful bunch of professionals.  They made me feel so welcome and I was a bit surprised though delighted at how well they treated me.



I also met two of the Royal Flush crew.  One of them, Andrea, mentioned that she was a 'nerd' like me and would be interviewing me later.  I laughed, yes Andrea you are just like me lol.

I got through the first two levels and into the first break.  A nice young man named Matt interviewed me for the print article that I shared above.

Chipped up a bit over the first 2 hours, my biggest chip count was 45K from a starting stack of 30K.

I had forgotten that Andrea was going to interview me on camera, she approached me on the second break.  Here is the second thing I wanted to put on the blog...



It was fun but nerve wracking, I'm not used to being on that side of the camera!

Anyways, as the third break approached - I busted out.  I made a sad face and informed Keta that I was out, she was very sympathetic and reminded me that I was invited to dinner with them later in the evening.  Oh yeah, I totally forgot about that!

The dinner was amazing.  It was actually a dinner for the WPT Champions Club, meaning most of the guests were WPT Main Event champs!

I kid you not, I sat in between Pat Lyons and Allen Kessler.  The former is a boisterous character who won the WPT legends event a couple of years ago, the latter is not a WPT champ, but a legendary professional player who is also quite the character.  He is mostly known for his online forum presence as THE arbiter of what is and what isn't a good tournament structure.  He also has made a name for himself as one of the most successful super tight players on the tournament circuit.

While listening to these two chat was fun, it was someone else at the table who made the evening memorable.  Andrea, the lovely young lady who had interviewed me on camera earlier, and I commiserated over our shared interests in pop culture before moving on to talking about family (her husband is also on the Royal Flush Crew and I had met him in Atlantic City) and other more important things.

It was a great conversation and I am so glad the evening was made all that much better being in her company.  We talked at length about her country of origin, Venezuela.  I have been there, and of course these days the country is going through an incredible amount of turmoil.  Andrea still has some family there, and they are all working on getting them out.  It really put the silly poker thing in perspective.

The food wasn't bad either, filet mignon and assorted other goodies.  I had to laugh about Mr. Kessler, it was a set menu, and yet every single item that was delivered to him was either altered or completely different from what was on the menu.  That cracks me up for some reason.

And then it was time to say goodnight.  I bid Keta and her team farewell, my heart full of gratitude for the amazing day and my seemingly endless amount of good fortune that runs through my life.  As I got into my rental car I had to stop and shake my head in disbelief - how did I get here?  That was CRAZY in all the best ways.

I had no idea I was going to be treated like a VIP the entire time I was there - it was very humbling and at times overwhelming.

But after I got home I watched something that made it all make sense.  My DVR had recorded a WPT event - it was the all amateur ClubWPT King of the Cup tournament, where online qualifiers got to compete for a 10K first place prize.

Every amateur participant was interviewed and throughout the program every single one of them spoke glowingly of the WPT organization, not only about how great the website is but about how well they had all been treated.

I realized, this is just what the WPT company does - they devote a good amount of time and resources to not only cater to pros and lifelong poker regulars, but to amateurs as well.  By taking the time to do things right and treating satellite winners from LearnWPT and ClubWPT like royalty, they are simply doing all they can to help the game of poker grow and thrive.

As a business plan, it totally makes sense.  But I also couldn't help notice that there was a genuineness to Keta and her team, they all really wanted me to enjoy myself and of course do well in the tournament.

It made this amateur feel great, and was one of the best examples I've ever seen of the philosophy that great customer service also makes for great success in business.

So yes, I love the WPT because they work hard to promote the game and they are full of great people.

I am very much looking forward to the summer and of course the WSOP.  I couldn't help but notice that there is an advanced LearnWPT tournament workshop the weekend prior to the opening of the series.

It was not the plan to go back to LearnWPT so soon, but it sure is tempting!  This is their first ever advanced tournament class, and who knows if they'll have one again anytime soon. I might just have to take the plunge!  We will see...