I know very little details of the circumstances, but my heart goes out to these guys - especially the one that now has to deal with the crushing grief process. But these events really gave me some perspective and set my brain to working on the bigger picture when it comes to poker and the people I play with. It hit me like a bolt - maybe I've been going at this WSOP thing all wrong.
There is a very, very, VERY short list of people, on my list of over 30 or so regulars and 100 or so once in a blue-mooners, whose poker game I have above and beyond respect for. Of that short list, there's an even smaller portion of those names that I am considering taking 'talking poker' to the next level with.
Allow me to explain. For a long time I have worked on my game. There are 5 things I do to improve, they are -
1. Play
2. Talk poker with a few confidantes.
3. Read books.
4. Watch training videos.
5. Other misc. things - including, podcasts, poker on tv, poker magazine articles and once every few years a training seminar.
On this list, nothing, and I mean nothing, beats playing. The more I play, the more experience I get, the better I get. I know for sure that I am technically a better player than many of the regulars in the card rooms, but where they have an edge over me is in raw experience. They are able to get away cheap in bad spots and/or get their money in while they are ahead more frequently and with more accuracy than me, simply because they have more time at the tables. By a lot.
But this first item isn't the concern of this post - the second item is.
I love talking poker with 3 guys, 2 of which had the setbacks I mentioned. But, the sad part is, I don't do it nearly often enough. Talking through hands thoroughly and honestly does more for my game than reading, watching videos and every other item on the list combined except for seminars like the WSOP academy which are very expensive and very infrequent.
So I'm afraid I haven't taken nearly enough advantage of my 3 confidantes. I would like to change that in a big way.
The idea hit me when I was texting with confidante number 1, he of the wife emergency. What if we were all to get together in my garage some afternoon or evening, and just lay it all out on the table so to speak. In other words, utterly detail my thinking about the game - absolutely spill my guts about the inner workings of my poker brain.
I know it would help them, but it would probably help me more, to verbally articulate exactly where I am coming from and my thought process. I get a TON out of just talking through the basics of a hand with these fellows. I can only imagine how much I would gain if I did not only that, but also revealed the inner workings of my poker world view.
Sounds crazy? Stupid? Hear me out.
The ultimate goal here, the big picture, would be to elevate my game greatly and ultimately make a deep run (like final table money or better) in a major tournament. I truly don't give too much of a shit about results in my garage compared to dropping a grand or so in a bracelet event for a shot at 5 figures or more.
What would I be gaining and what I would be losing? Losing - three or more guys, the best players in my game, at the table in my garage having my inner playbook to work off of. Gaining - a ton of valuable feedback on said playbook so I can make it better and better and use it in bigger venues. Not even a contest in my mind.
Furthermore, I know I will become a better player also precisely because some of my opponents now know all of my secrets. I will have to get a lot more creative to defy their expectations when we do play together.
Along with the ultimate goal of going deep in a big event, would be a very worthwhile thing of also helping my buds improve and perhaps they would go deep for big bucks one day. The only thing more awesome than me sitting under the bright lights of a WSOP final table would be seeing one of these guys there. I would quite literally drop everything and fly out to see any one of these dudes if it happened.
So that's what I'd like to do. So far 2 of the 3 are on board, I'll have to work on the third fellow after awhile, he's grieving at the moment. He's actually the one who might not be on board with this, but I'd respect him if that were his choice.
When we all, or most of us, do get together, I'd like to for sure go around the table one at a time and each of us go down a list of things that we want to share. I myself have 5 topics that I'd like to bring up. I'm going to share them here, in summary without too much detail, but these are aspects of my game that I am pretty proud of for understanding and working with to pretty decent results over the last 2 years. If you're a player in my garage and you've just stumbled across this, congrats, you'll be given great insight into how I see the game. Now keep it to yourself! (Smiley winky face).
1. Bet Sizing
More than any other topic, this has influenced my game over the past several years. When I am in a hand (or even when I'm not) the very first thing I look at with a player is the size of their bets. It is absolutely at the top of my list of things to observe. It has top priority, because to me it is the number one source of information in a game that sometimes seems absent of it.
Once I see the size of a bet and a showdown, then see a different size of bet and a different resulting showdown, I have learned a TON about a particular player.
In general, but certainly not always - the big tell that's given off is; Big Bet = Big Hand. Little Bet = Little Hand. This is SO common with recreational and/or home game players. It really is amazing.
I don't know that I've ever seen this tidbit in a book or video. The idea is mentioned in passing and in many different ways, but in my opinion it is never given the correct emphasis. This is a BIG deal and is something that I'm always hyper conscious of.
There are tons of players who adjust their bet sizing based on the strength of their hand, and it is an absolute disaster for them against observant opponents. This can be pre-flop or post. The biggest pre-flop tell I see on a regular basis is the over sized bet of pocket Jacks. If someone has been raising 2 to 3 times the big blind all tournament, and then suddenly opens a pot with a 6, 8 or even 10x raise - that's almost always Jacks. Occasionally QQ or KK, once in a blue moon 1010. If it's any of those, that's an INCREDIBLY SMALL range of hands. This player is essentially playing their cards face up. In a game of incomplete information, this is a beautiful thing.
Post flop, things can be almost as obvious. All players are different of course, but more often than not, when someone has top pair meh kicker, or second pair on a dry board, they will bet a quarter of the pot or less. Often they will lead out of position (donk bet) with a hand like this. Many players bet this size with air as well on a flop that they miss as a continuation bet. When they hit the board squarely and it's wet, they almost always will bet 3/4 of the pot or more.
If they flop a monster, they most often will check/call, or occasionally check raise big. When they do the former it's the easiest thing in the world to get away from. This of course does not apply to a capable opponent - someone who is utterly at ease bluffing big. But these types of players are far and few between in home games. I can basically count them on one hand among the players in my garage.
Those who check/call a monster flop will also likely do the same on the turn, and then absolutely bomb it with a pot sized bet or more on the river, especially if I check back the turn. Again, this is the same as a giant neon sign reading "Monster Hand" illuminated over their heads.
Now don't misunderstand - there are no absolute rules here, it takes a lot of experience at the table to sift through the bet sizing indicators and tells; but many players don't even know this is what they should be looking at. I look forward to sharing this topic with my cabal and see what they say.
2. Betting Frequency/Patterns
This is a much more nebulous category of tells that nonetheless can be very valuable with certain opponents. This pattern of behavior is more frequently pointed out in books, so there's less of a big revelation here. But I've used my observation of bet sizing in tandem with betting frequency and/or patterns very effectively for a few years now, especially on less experienced opponents to great results.
As with bet sizing, I use how often and when someone bets to help me put an opponent on a range of hands (see topic 3 below) and as with sizing, in general, the more an opponent is doing something, the stronger his or her hand is. This is not always the case with everyone (there is a class of softer opponents who will bet every street small with a weak or negligible holding) but in general - firing a second barrel on the turn means they have hit the board.
Firing on all three streets for sure means they have connected (again, except for very capable opponents who know that I like to float). Once more, I have a very short list of players in my garage that I know can triple barrel with nothing. With 90% of my opponents in a home game, if they fire on all three streets, I know they have show down value. I refer to their sizing to clue me in to the degree of strength of their hand.
Leading out, also known as donk betting, is a big indicator for most home gamers that they have connected at medium strength with the flop. Either middle pair or top pair with an ok kicker. This is especially true if the board is wet. I often notice that the bet size increases in tandem with the wetness of the flop. (Again, sizing gives the most info.)
Check raising is super strong with most opponents. I know of very few who are capable of doing it as a bluff. I myself am capable, but only against players who are in turn capable of folding to a show of strength. This is mostly folks who have played for several years and take their game seriously but aren't the toughest of the bunch.
A river bet more than any other bet, generally means what it means. Yes, there are a good amount of players who value bet the river if they think they are ahead - though they likely don't even know what that means, but there are hardly any capable of firing if they have zero equity. The ones that do often (again with sizing) put out a bet that's a quarter of the pot or less. Or they simply shove which often makes no sense and is easy to decipher. An abrupt river shove is almost always a slow played monster, but sometimes it is an act of desperation that can be picked off. Only the bad asses will bomb the river with complete air and a logical bet size.
3. Opponent Hand Ranges
This topic has been covered extensively by books and videos - so I'm absolutely not breaking any new ground here. But I think it's worth talking about with the Cabal because I don't see this concept being used often enough in home poker. I want to bring this up because I want to make sure that these guys are all familiar with this concept and use it the same way I do.
Too often I hear - "Well I put you on Ace Queen" or some other such nonsense. I hope I can share and articulate why this is a bad method of reading an opponent.
To try and put someone on a particular hand is not just unlikely, it's actually harmful. We should never aspire to narrow an opponents range to a single combination of cards. Doing this too often leads to the disastrous scenario of folding a winning hand in a monstrous pot. If you are literally only beaten by one hand (for example you have KK pre-flop with 40 bigs or less in a tournament and your opponent shoves) then you are committing an equity catastrophe here by folding.
My opponent who is very tight regular three bet shoves from the small blind after my open from the cutoff with QQ. He has 30 big blinds which will cripple me. I actually see players in situations like this go into the tank and agonize. They know the player is super tight, and they are desperately trying to put him on a single hand - AA. This is stupid.
My thought process, which takes about two seconds is - "What hands (emphasis on the plural) does he have here? AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AK or AQ. Also, because it's me and I'm perceived by him as a maniac his range includes 88 or better, as well as AJ, A10, KQ, KJ and any suited ace, plus there's a good chance that a few other lesser holdings are in there too. Insta-call."
Notice I include AA & KK but I don't worry about it because it's just a tiny part of his range. What's the point of agonizing over a very small portion of the hands he is doing this with? Poker is all about calculated risks and we must be willing to make them every time when the odds are so heavily in our favor. We can't control the 10% flukes, we just have to live with them.
The other, and perhaps more important thing about putting your opponent on a range instead of a particular hand, is that you must have this to bet sensibly - especially on the river.
What hands does my opponent have and what can he call me with that I beat? This is THE question for deciding when to value bet and for how much.
A typical thought process before value betting should be - "For a half pot bet here, I'm getting called with, TPTK, an overpair, two pair, and certainly a lower set." My own thoughts are more condensed, more like "There's a lot he can call me with" or "There's not much he can call me with that I can beat, but I'm too strong not to bet" or "He only calls me with what beats me, I'm checking back" and so on.
4. Perceived Range
Just as important as my opponents range of hands, is my own range AS PERCEIVED BY MY OPPONENT.
This is absolutely crucial for executing a successful bluff. If I can't imagine what my opponent is putting me on, it is very tough to pull off a credible bluff.
Granted, most recreational/home players don't deal with hand ranges - but they do subconsciously imagine what different hands I am representing. If I am playing someone who I know is hyper-fearful of draws getting there - you bet your ass I'm going to fire when a fourth spade peels off on the river. I may even check raise bluff if I'm deep enough.
Conversely, if my opponent is a level 1 thinker (someone who only thinks about what they themselves are holding) I don't have to worry about my perceived range too much. If they are weak and I bet they will fold. If they call, they have showdown value - and if have air I shut it down or if I am strong I value bet the shit out of them. Easy game.
5. The Myth of Soul Reading
I have covered this topic before on this blog I believe, but it is something I for sure want to bring up to the cabal.
This last year in the Main Event of the World Series of Poker there was a hand where a supposed poker pro folded quads face up to a shove on the river, claiming that his opponent must've had a straight flush. Check out the particulars here.
Now, his opponent did not show, and later said that he did have the straight flush. Let's take a leap here and presume that he was telling the truth. My conclusion is that this is still an absolutely terrible lay down, not even considering that he was getting 2 to 1 to call.
Why? You may ask. He got away and preserved his tournament life (again, presuming his opponent is telling the truth). Well, here's the thing - the likelihood of his opponent having precisely Q10 of spades is so unlikely as to be not really worth considering. And this is a concept that I really believe in - sometimes, even if you could somehow magically see that you were beat, you would still be absolutely wrong to fold.
This also applies in the converse, if somehow you knew that your opponent was bluffing and that your nine high was good, you would still be absolutely wrong to call. Stu Unger actually did this once, and he was right. It worked out, but he was wrong to do so. Bear with me.
Poker is now and forever more a game of incomplete information, rooted in the idea that you MUST take calculated risks to succeed. In other words, you must be willing to die in order to live. In better words, poker is not about winning pots - it is about making correct decisions.
You absolutely will NOT win tournaments folding quads. (This guy certainly is not in the November 9 - spoiler alert!) Furthermore, if you make the 2nd disastrous decision to fold your quads face up, you will forever have a target on your back and you will absolutely be the next person I run a big bluff on.
Maybe once in a blue moon you will have a board and opponent that line up perfectly that lead to laying down quads being a potentially reasonable decision.
A loose/passive player whose over bet on the river let's you know he's super strong and there's a board of 9,8,7,7 with the first three cards being spades, where your opponent could have 105, 106, or J10 of spades or even better an open ended straight flush board where your opponent only needs one card to make his straight flush.
But even with these unlikely scenarios, no one can fault you for going broke with freaking quads.
The hand in the Main Event is ridiculous, and so are you if you lay down quads.
Really, this whole topic is to get all of us (myself included) to stop wasting time and energy 'splainin' meaningless hands. In a tournament, 30 bigs or less - QQ? Get it in. JJ? Get it in. Flopped bottom set? Get it in. Open ended straight and flush draw? Get it in. Take your lumps. Take your medicine. And don't talk about it later. Let's talk about actual hands.
*******
So there it is. Really, this is all about making my game better and bringing my buds along. I would love to aim higher, shoot for the stars. Why not?
I see poker 'crews', groups of friends, on the WSOP all the time, sometimes they are pros but sometimes not, who have a regular home game that routinely go deep in the main. Steve Danneman, who finished second to Joe Hachem in the main in 2005, has a regular home game filled with guys who often go deep and I think there may even be a bracelet winner or two in there.
Why not us?
*******
EDIT: 9-24-16, more thoughts.
I forgot one of the absolute biggest things I'd like to bring up - aggression.
More specifically, the lack of it in home games, that is - in general, raising instead of limping. Why should we not limp? Because good things happen when we raise. And there's not nearly enough raising in home poker.
Think about it. Say you want to come into a pot pre-flop with QJ in middle position early in a tournament. It's a bit dubious to begin with, but what happens when you call instead of raise? Players on your left are very likely to call as well, starting a limpede that often results in 5, 6 or even 7 or more players seeing a flop. Good times.
Now you are in the middle of this mess and you have less and less information with each successive limper. The guy on the button could have almost anything and the two blinds are literally calling and checking respectively with the entire deck.
Now the flop hits with a queen and two rags, rainbow. Perfect right? It's checked to you and you naturally bet - and get two callers, maybe three callers or more.
Super. The turn is a king. Fantastic. Well this went well. What do you do? Check? Bet? Where are you in this hand? I'll tell you where you are - you are in the land of FUCKED.
If you continue with your story and get called, that's bad. If you check/call, that's piss poor because you inevitably will be sandwiched between two or more players who either have made hands better than yours or big draws.
If you lead out and get raised, as Eddie Murphy famously said "Whatthefuckyougondonow?"
All of this, and I mean just about ALL of this could've been avoided by opening the pot with a raise. Even early when everyone's deep. Yes, you're still likely to get multiple callers but guess what? With two or three callers to your left, you're not attached to this hand - believe it or not you can get away easier because by calling your raise, your opponents have given you information that they otherwise wouldn't by just calling.
They have something. As opposed to having possibly everything. And just by virtue of getting called after you raise, you are in a much better position mentally to let go of this hand if you have to, even if you hit the flop.
So it is folded to you in middle position and you raise it up. Now you only get one or two callers. Maybe one has position on you or maybe not. Now you are much more clear on where you are at, you've thinned the herd somewhat and when you hit top pair you are so much more well equipped to deal with people playing back at you. Say this time you get two callers, one in position and one out of position against you.
Now you hit the same flop, it is checked to you and you c-bet, the one guy on your left does call, but the other guy on your right let's it go.
Stop right here. Even though you've got someone playing back at you, can you see how infinitely better this situation is for you? You are now heads up with what is likely the best hand - or you are crushed, but either way, the decisions you face on the next two streets should be relatively straight forward.
Regardless of the turn, my plan would be to check/call and then reevaluate on the river. Easy peezy rice and cheesy. Minimal mental effort required.
Good things happen when we raise. We raise for value or we raise to bluff, but with either reason we get good things sent our way. We thin the herd, and we get a shit ton more information than we would just by limping.
This is the kind of thing I want to dig into with my compatriot poker players.
So yes there would be a 'cabal' a small group of guys whose games I respect greatly. But maybe we could all take it a step further.
Every other week or so I put out an evite to a hundred or so players for a tournament or a cash game. I usually get a fantastic response. Single table events fill right up fast, and multi-table tournaments typically have 20 or more players.
What if, I was to put out an evite for a "Poker Lab" event? An afternoon or evening of open discussion about the game we love. I would limit it to 10 seats and see what happens. The evite info would read something like...
"You are cordially invited to take place in a unique forum and laboratory in tournament home poker.
We all want to get better and what better way than sharing information with people that you like?
No one is going to get rich playing in our little game, but there are lots of economic opportunities in the game at large. Wouldn't it be great if one of us could make a deep run at the World Series of Poker? How are we going to make this happen? We could cross our fingers and hope that one of us gets lucky, as we have for the past 8 years or so - OR, we could get pro-active and really work on making ourselves better.
There are lots of resources out there for improving your game - books, videos, podcasts, expensive seminars, and on and on. But the very best resource I believe, and the one that has helped me the most by far in improving my game - is talking over hands with my friends.
I consider everyone on this list not only a poker buddy, but a friend as well. The benefits we will get from spilling our guts about poker to each other will far outweigh any downside from revealing secrets. I have no qualms about being transparent with my friends, and I am not looking to get rich off of my home poker game. There's a reason all my tournaments are only $40 or $60 max - the garage is my learning environment, and I think it's high time I shared this with all of you.
I want to get better at my game, I want to take down a five figure score or more or at least see one of you do the same - and I think it's achievable, but we can't do it alone.
I don't fancy myself an instructor at all, but I find by talking through hands with people, I learn AND they learn. Hopefully we will have a mixe of more experienced players and less experienced players in attendance, but both groups will benefit and learn together.
And just sos you know, this is not a unique idea or happening - there are several well known groups of tournament players who do this sort of thing once or even several times a year. Steve Danneman, who finished second in the main event in 2005 does this annually with his home game, which at this point has more than one bracelet winner in it.
Hope you will join us for this unique event - pizza will be provided and at the very least it should be a lot of fun!"
That's my idea - I'll be running it past some of my closest friends in the game first to see their reaction. Who knows, maybe they'll be disgusted! I just hope they can see the bigger picture, crushing Pepper Street is not the idea behind my game; getting better and learning together so that we can crush out in the wild is.
Stay tuned to see where this goes!
