Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Reality Check

Something to think about - I've always taken the opposite approach to most recreational players when selecting a tournament.

The flatter the structure, the more chips you get, the longer the levels, the higher the buy-in - the more likely you are going to find yourself up against experienced players, either semi-pros or true professionals.  This is not a positive EV (Expected Value) equation.

When I look at the WSOP schedule, for example, the Monster Stack event doesn't really appeal to me as much as the smaller 1500 and 1K events, because I understand that deeper blinds, more chips and longer levels put me at a DISADVANTAGE, in the long run against more experienced players.  Most recreational players feel the opposite.

They want tons of chips and long levels and hundreds of big blinds to start.  If I'm up against other recreational. / home game players, sure a deeper structure will probably give me an advantage.  But if anyone like me who only plays poker on the weekends and has a full time job outside of the game, thinks they have an edge in something like the Monster Stack where some of the best tournament players in the world are congregating, along with hundreds of other full time professional players, they are kidding themselves.

There is a very real skill gap in this game.  I saw it first hand on day 3 of the Main Event.  Days 1 and 2 were a dream, both of my tables were loaded with fish.  The one decent tournament professional I faced on day 1 I coolered when I woke up with AA and he had KK.  Then day 3 hit like a hammer.

There was one older recreational player at the table, I was better than him.  Every single other player at that table was either making their living at or seriously supplementing their income in poker.  I was the sucker, and this was painfully obvious after a few hours and a dozen hands or so that saw my stack cut in half, not by bad luck or bad cards, but by simply being outplayed.

It was sobering, but not surprising or shocking.  It wasn't discouraging either - it was actually weirdly reassuring.  Poker truly is a skill game, and the harder we work on it, the 'luckier' we are bound to get. If I was playing tournaments every day and had to live off of my winnings, I know I could be right up there.  But since my time and resources are limited to a point, I need to be completely honest about myself and my capabilities.

Deeper structures and higher buy-ins are not what I should be looking for.  I would much rather have a fast structure with a low price point and a high guarantee - like last Sunday's event at the Bike.  $240 for a 100K guarantee prize pool and it was a one day event, now that is just perfect!

These Quantum multi-day things that allow Day 2 entries for 4K, these are a TERRIBLE value for a recreational player.  You are going to shell out a couple hundred bucks or more to play for 10 hours and then squeak into day 2 with a small stack only to sit down with fresh as a daisy tournament professionals (because they didn't have to grind all the previous days) who have newly added big stacks and they are licking their chops in anticipation of pillaging your stack.  No thanks.

Give me a turbo any day.  Let me 3 bet shove my 20 big blind stack and get lucky against a pro who has no defense for such a play but to fold or call and pray.  The other advantage of a fast structure - drunken amateur cash game players.  My best results by far in Vegas are in these 3-4 hour low entry turbo events late at night.  Over five years I've played in dozens of tournaments at T.I. (now sadly they just closed their poker room).  $65 tournaments, over in 4 hours or less.  My profit at T.I. was $219 an hour.  I've never approached anything like that at the Aria dailies or the Venetian Deep Stack events.

If you're going to give me a 'deep' structure, it has to be for a low price point - not because I can't afford the occasional 1K event, I'm blessed in life to be able to have that kind of money to spare once in awhile, but because lower entry events see lots of recreational players.  Binion's and the Golden Nugget run low price point series with good structures and much more importantly - soft fields.

But if I'm at the WSOP, I'm avoiding the Monster Stack, the Marathon, the 1K Double Stack or any other format that gives an edge to professionals.  I'm seeking out the 1K 3 day events and especially the Colossus, probably by far the best value for the money of any tournament ever.

Yes, the Main Event is an exception because it's the greatest tournament on earth and I wouldn't trade that experience for anything and I would love to go back - but other Super Deep events, if they truly are deep, are more likely to attract people who make a living at this game and are counting on people like me to show up.


EDIT:  Here's a video from 2 years ago of me ranting a bit on this subject - not sure if I already put it on this blog, but here ya go.