Just call me bubble boy.
For the second time in five tournaments I finished one out of the money, aka - the bubble.
Disappointed? Naturally, yes. Did I play badly? Hardly.
This tournament, more than any other so far, demonstrated to me just how big a factor luck really is with this structure and this many players. The blinds worked great last season, with only 8 to 10 players on average. You could afford to wait a bit, and pick your spots to steal or catch some cards. Now, with an average of over 15 players, the pressure is ON. Every hand.
If you wait for good cards you WILL get blinded out; whittled down to the nub so far that opponents are right to call your all- in with any two cards.
If you try to steal, you have to be perfect in your timing and selection of targets or your opponents will absolutely look you up.
It's a much tougher road this season, and players who finished high up the standings last year by being rocks; are nowhere to be found on the leader board so far. It is an entirely different ball game so to speak, and they'd better start changing gears if they hope to be factors this time around.
On the other side of the coin, we don't have any true maniacs among us - but the more aggressive players (myself included) have to be far more selective in the battles they pick. You can't simply bully with big bets, there must be much more of a method behind the madness.
Target selection is critical; who is playing tight? Who is a good enough player to respect my raise and recognize they have incorrect odds to call? Who is on a medium stack? (A big stack can't be robbed, a small stack is desperate and just may call and damage you.)
I feel that I've managed both sides of this equation well so far. And last night was no exception. I stole enough (with good timing) to keep ahead of the blinds. But I didn't run into any premium cards, so I had to bow out of fights with those who were catching cards and hitting flops.
The Rubin seemed to be the luck box of the night, but he also played a good tight aggressive game. He is pretty readable, generally when he fires he has something. Best of all, he will fold to a micro bet pre-flop if he has trash, even when the numbers make a call correct.
Throughout the night I was up a little, I was down a little. I knew I was not long for this world as the end approached, but I also had faith that good decisions would see me through to a respectable finish.
I had some major fantastic steals in the last 15 minutes, and then perched on the bubble....
No Limit Texas Holdem ($200/$400 NL)
3) The Rubin $12,490 ?? ??
4) Manzoni $2,220 Qc Ks
5) Sammy Ro $2,635 ?? ??
6) Deepster * $3,075 ?? ??
10) ytrabbit $5,080 Qh Qd
The Rubin antes $25
Manzoni antes $25
Sammy Ro antes $25
Deepster antes $25
ytrabbit antes $25
ytrabbit posts small blind $200
The Rubin posts big blind $400
Manzoni raises $1,795 (all-in)
Sammy Ro folds
Deepster folds
ytrabbit raises $2,860 (all-in)
The Rubin folds
Manzoni shows Qc Ks
ytrabbit shows Qh Qd
FLOP: Kd 7h Qs
TURN: Kd 7h Qs Tc
RIVER: Kd 7h Qs Tc 8s
ytrabbit wins $4,915 with Three of a Kind, Queens
Personally, I'm okay with the way I played this. Everyone at the table except Rubin is desperately short stacked, and it's bubble time. A GREAT time to get aggressive, because no one wants to fall just short. As long as I make correct decisions, I'm happy to bust out in the short run, because in the long run I will cash and finish first more often. People wake up with pocket queens VERY far and few between. I can't let that dampen my aggression here.
In this situation, even though I'm UTG, it's 5 handed and it's VERY worth going after blinds and antes at this point ($725, is over a third of my stack) by being first in I have a lot of fold/fear equity, plus I just can't wait for better cards - lest I get whittled down to where my stack is ineffective (as other players did).
Nope, the bubble doesn't bother me too much, I'd rather go out fighting. And I'm not going to avoid getting my chips in with what I think is the best of it, simply out of fear that someone might wake up with premium starting cards. There's big time negative EV in that train of thought.
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