So close...

Yet so far away. (Anyone remember that classic / dreadful song from Hall and Oates?)

Last Monday I took down first place in Flatworld, my Poker Stars Home Games WSOP league. It was my fourth first place finish in 17 tournaments. This has now put me one point behind the first place player, and I'm tied with another guy for second.

Our last tournament in this series is on Monday. I have to improve my score (since we only count our top ten scores I have to finish in fifth place or higher) to have a chance for the seat. If I improve my score by two points and the first place guy and the second place guy don't improve - I win the seat. If I improve my score by one point and neither of my competitors improve, I'm tied for the seat. (Which means I have to play a tie breaker tournament the following week.)

It is very much down to the wire here - and I have no one but myself to blame for coming EXTREMELY close to a seat for the third year in a row.

If I could somehow bring may A-Game, you know, the one I played last Monday - where despite an absence of premium cards I was able to parlay laser sharp selective aggression and spot on reads to a decisive first place finish - If I could bring that every week, it wouldn't even be close to being close right now.

Yes, luck is a big factor, we essentially play turbos because the tournaments are almost always over within three hours - but still... I really feel more than ever now that I have a BIG edge over this league.

So I've decided that this Monday night, when it is truly all on the line - that I can only focus on me. Improve my score by 2 points is my goal, what the other guys do (and who decides to donate chips to them) is pretty much entirely out of my hands. This is doubly so because we are now averaging only 10 players, where our early tournaments typically had 20+. The points for first place remain the same, so odds are not that great that one or both of the other two contenders won't improve their scores.

But as long as there are also guys involved like the one who paid me off with almost his entire stack after I turned quads - and he had the third best flush on the flop, I feel really, really good about my chances. I just have to remember not to be devastated if history repeats itself and I get massively unlucky. Last year, as you may recall, there was a crucial hand that basically sent a fellow to the WSOP instead of me.

It was all in pre-flop, I had Kings he had Queens. It still stings to this day - simply because it was such a mental momentum killer for me. I can't even remember if that hand eliminated me, I believe it did, but at the very least I was crippled and out soon after. He went on to win that entire tournament, and I believe if memory serves, that was enough to put him out in front for good in points with only a handful of tournaments remaining. I am 100% confident that if my 80/20 hand had actually held up, the 2010 WSOP would have been a very different story.

To his credit, this player "The Ruben", is one of the better in the league and he did in fact make the deepest run of anyone I've ever helped send to the big dance. He busted just before the dinner break.

In my home game this year I've sent a new rep, my bestest buddy Cali. He is already thinking about day 2 in the event and how he's going to make it to the money. I'm telling him, just get to the dinner break, and he'll be a winner. To realistically go beyond that point, requires quite a bit of forethought.

While I wouldn't call the 1K WSOP event a turbo, I will go out on a limb and say that if you don't accumulate big, well before the antes kick in, you have little or no chance of making it to meal time, let alone the second day or the money. The key in this event is to be 200+ BB deep when level 6 finally rolls around - at that point (and only at that point) you have to start stealing and accumulating. Before the antes, there's no point in trying to be a thief for two reasons. One - unless you quadruple up, you don't have the ammo for it. And more importantly - Two - the un-raised blinds aren't yet big enough to justify shenanigans.

So because you're so short stacked to begin with, at least you are after the end of level 2 with only 30 big blinds, you must, must, MUST be looking for a spot to get all of your chips in as a big favorite. Ideally, you want to four bet shove with cowboys or rockets
and get looked up by big slick or a pair of queens. That is a very specific, best case scenario. But there are lesser versions of this which may have to do as well. Set mine if it's super cheap and check raise shove on the flop when you hit. Hope that there's an ace or a king on board that connected with your opponent. Speculate with a suited connecter where there's multiple limpers and flop the world. Plan to get it in by the river.

It's not fancy or tricky poker, but it is all about getting lucky and getting that mountain you're going to need when it's time to shift gears. Ideally, you want a shot at two mountains in the first five hours. If you have a chance to get it in as a 60/40 favorite, don't hesitate.

You may also find yourself coolered - don't try to avoid this. If you fold pocket kings pre-flop you deserve a punch in the junk. If you fold bottom set on the flop, ditto.

If you do find yourself with a Carlos Mortensen-like castle at ante time - pillage all you can, in position and against weak targets only. Before you've even gotten to this point, chat it up a bit and see if you can discern who's a tourist like yourself and who is of the predator variety. Avoid the latter in your thievery.

Raise with junk from the cutoff. Dry board with an ace? C-bet. Barrel again on the turn if it blanks. Is he still there? Might be time to give it up - or stick it in on the end if you know he'll buckle. Trust your reads.

I'm writing out these thoughts for myself mainly, but I hope it gives Cali food for thought if he stumbles across this. I've said it before, but it bears repeating - instinctively he is a better player than I am and probably always will be. I have a tendency to over think and over extend myself, I'm always working my way back to the place in my game where it is about making correct decisions - but it's a never ending journey.

I just can't wait for Monday. Stay tuned.